Allocation History

Image Description

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 2, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Recap: Late September and early October saw more of the same volatility that has plagued markets since April. It is common in bull markets for the market to take two steps forward (e.g. the September highs) and then one step back (e.g. the sharp selloff in the first week of October). Due to the latest market deterioration, CARA signaled reallocation on October 2, 2019. A scene change generally takes up to 48 hours to execute.

Cabana’s Allocation in Response to the Economic Cycle

  • Scene
    Broad Themes
  • Bullish
    Typical of a bull market cycle resumption following a correction or bear market. Risk assets, such as equities, outperform fixed income assets such as treasuries, bonds, preferred stocks and REITS.
  • Moderately Bullish
    Typical of an uptrend within a cyclical bull market cycle. Equities of all types generally outperform. Fixed income and dividend paying assets may also be attractive.
  • Cautiously Bullish
    Typical of a pullback within a cyclical bull market. Defensive equity sectors as well as fixed income and dividend paying assets outperform higher beta risk assets.
  • Moderately Bearish
    This scene represents the typical uptrend within a larger, cyclical bear market. Income producing assets, including preferred stocks, corporate grade bonds and dividend paying large cap equities outperform higher beta assets.
  • Transitional Bearish
    This scene represents the transition from cyclical bullish conditions to bearish conditions. Due to sustained deterioration in domestic market conditions, international stocks, commodities, and U.S. Treasuries are relatively attractive.
  • Bearish
    This scene represents a true bear market or significant correction. Risk off assets are attractive. These include U.S. Treasuries, gold and the U.S. dollar.

Repeating Economic Cycle

Repeating Economic Cycle

* Markets are a leading indicator (within 6 to 8 months) of the economic cycle, which is considered when determining the asset allocation.

Changes Over Time

October 2, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 2, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Sept 11, 2019

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: Sept 11, 2019

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

August 5, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: August 5, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

June 14, 2019

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: June 14, 2019

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

May 17, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 17, 2019

Previous Scene: Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

February 21, 2019

Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: February 21, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bearish

Current Scene: Bullish

January 22, 2019

Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: January 22, 2019

Previous Scene: Transitional Bearish

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

December 21, 2018

Transitional  Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: December 21, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Transitional Bearish

October 11, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 11, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

May 10, 2018

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 10, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

March 23, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 23, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

March 6, 2018

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 6, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

February 9, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: February 9, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

April 20, 2017

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: April 20, 2017

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

April 13, 2017

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: April 13, 2017

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Contact us for allocation history prior to January 1, 2017.