Allocation History

Image Description

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: November 9, 2022

Previous Scene: Safety Valve

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

Recap:

At Cabana, CARA signaled reallocation from our Safety Valve Level 2 allocation to our Moderately Bearish Scene on November 9, 2022, in response to improving market conditions. All Cabana strategies were reallocated by close of business on November 14, 2022.

For frequently asked questions about scene changes click here.

* Reallocation is generally completed between one and three business days after the identified reallocation signal date.

Cabana’s Allocation in Response to the Economic Cycle

  • Scene
    Broad Themes
  • Bullish / Transitional Bullish
    Typical of a bull market cycle resumption following a correction or bear market. Risk assets, such as equities, outperform fixed income assets such as treasuries, bonds, preferred stocks and REITS.
  • Moderately Bullish
    Typical of an uptrend within a cyclical bull market cycle. Equities of all types generally outperform. Fixed income and dividend paying assets may also be attractive.
  • Cautiously Bullish
    Typical of a pullback within a cyclical bull market. Defensive equity sectors as well as fixed income and dividend paying assets outperform higher beta risk assets.
  • Moderately Bearish
    This scene represents the typical uptrend within a larger, cyclical bear market. Income producing assets, including preferred stocks, corporate grade bonds and dividend paying large cap equities outperform higher beta assets.
  • Transitional Bearish
    This scene represents the culmination of sustained downtrend following cyclical bullish conditions. This scene is typically short in duration and may present an opportunity to allocate into assets that have been oversold and may resume their uptrend. Alternatively, this scene represents the gateway to a cyclical bear market should the downtrend continue. A diversified portfolio of equities, bonds, real estate and commodities are appropriate. The relative beta of each strategy in this scene is dependent upon their respective target drawdown.
  • Safety Valve
    This represents Cabana’s most bearish scene. Holdings selected historically tend to perform well during times of excessive market drawdown. These include U.S Treasuries, gold and the U.S. dollar, among others. This scene overrides the normal operation of the first five scenes in the event of market declines beyond a predefined limit, resuming normal operation when the basic five-scene model transitions upward (to a more bullish scene) or when an upward market trend is signaled (if we are already in the most bullish scene). This scene seeks to protect against periods of unusual market conditions, including convergence of asset class correlation, unforeseen economic shock, or other black swan events. In this way, the Safety Valve is intended to complement Cabana’s “target drawdown” optimization during times when excessive drawdown is threatened. When the Safety Valve is triggered, all strategies will be reallocated, and we will seek to remove beta in proportion to the drawdown of the strategy. This is "Safety Valve Level 1”. In the event CARA signals a scene change to bear market conditions while the Safety Valve is in effect, all strategies will be reallocated to seek to remove most or all beta in an effort to protect against further losses in cyclical bear market conditions. This is "Safety Valve Level 2”.

*All investments carry a degree of risk. Scenes assigned as per the judgment of The Cabana Group. Scene names and number of scenes have changed over time.

Repeating Economic Cycle

Repeating Economic Cycle

* Markets are a leading indicator (within 6 to 8 months) of the economic cycle, which is considered when determining the asset allocation.

Changes Over Time

November 9, 2022

Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: November 9, 2022

Previous Scene: Safety Valve

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

August 22, 2022

Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: August 22, 2022

Previous Scene: Moderately Bearish

Current Scene: Safety Valve

August 1, 2022

Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: August 1, 2022

Previous Scene: Bearish

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

May 9, 2022

Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 9, 2022

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Bearish

April 26, 2022

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: April 26, 2022

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

March 28, 2022

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 28, 2022

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

January 27, 2022

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: January 27, 2022

Previous Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

November 13, 2020

Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: November 13, 2020

Previous Scene: Moderately Bearish

Current Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

November 4, 2020

Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: November 4, 2020

Previous Scene: Bearish

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

October 29, 2020

Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 29, 2020

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Bearish

October 9, 2020

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 9, 2020

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

September 21, 2020

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: September 21, 2020

Previous Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

July 10, 2020

Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: July 10, 2020

Previous Scene: Moderately Bearish

Current Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

May 8, 2020

Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 8, 2020

Previous Scene: Bearish

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

March 18, 2020

Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 18, 2020

Previous Scene: Bearish

Current Scene: Bearish

March 8, 2020

Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 8, 2020

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Bearish

February 26, 2020

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: February 26, 2020

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

October 18, 2019

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 18, 2019

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

October 2, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 2, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Sept 11, 2019

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: Sept 11, 2019

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

August 5, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: August 5, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

June 14, 2019

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: June 14, 2019

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

May 17, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 17, 2019

Previous Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

February 21, 2019

Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: February 21, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bearish

Current Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

January 22, 2019

Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: January 22, 2019

Previous Scene: Transitional Bearish

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

December 21, 2018

Transitional  Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: December 21, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Transitional Bearish

October 11, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 11, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

May 10, 2018

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 10, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

March 23, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 23, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

March 6, 2018

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 6, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

February 9, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: February 9, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

April 20, 2017

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: April 20, 2017

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

April 13, 2017

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: April 13, 2017

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Contact us for allocation history prior to 2017.