Allocation History

Image Description

Current Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: July 10, 2020

Previous Scene: Moderately Bearish

Current Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

Recap: An incredibly resilient equity market in the face of dire economic condition and a global pandemic, resulted in a reallocation by CARA from cyclical bearish conditions to cyclical bullish conditions. The current Bullish/Transitional Bullish Scene represents the transition to risk assets from risk off assets that occurs at the beginning of a new bull market. The opportunity for capital gains is significant, but typically short lived as profit taking kicks in and a pullback often follows.

* Reallocation is generally completed between one and three business days after the identified reallocation signal date.

Cabana’s Allocation in Response to the Economic Cycle

  • Scene
    Broad Themes
  • Bullish / Transitional Bullish
    Typical of a bull market cycle resumption following a correction or bear market. Risk assets, such as equities, outperform fixed income assets such as treasuries, bonds, preferred stocks and REITS.
  • Moderately Bullish
    Typical of an uptrend within a cyclical bull market cycle. Equities of all types generally outperform. Fixed income and dividend paying assets may also be attractive.
  • Cautiously Bullish
    Typical of a pullback within a cyclical bull market. Defensive equity sectors as well as fixed income and dividend paying assets outperform higher beta risk assets.
  • Moderately Bearish
    This scene represents the typical uptrend within a larger, cyclical bear market. Income producing assets, including preferred stocks, corporate grade bonds and dividend paying large cap equities outperform higher beta assets.
  • Bearish
    This scene represents a true bear market or significant correction. Risk off assets are attractive. These include U.S. Treasuries, gold and the U.S. dollar.

Repeating Economic Cycle

Repeating Economic Cycle

* Markets are a leading indicator (within 6 to 8 months) of the economic cycle, which is considered when determining the asset allocation.

Changes Over Time

May 8, 2020

Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 8, 2020

Previous Scene: Bearish

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

March 18, 2020

Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 18, 2020

Previous Scene: Bearish

Current Scene: Bearish

March 8, 2020

Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 8, 2020

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Bearish

February 26, 2020

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: February 26, 2020

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

October 18, 2019

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 18, 2019

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

October 2, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 2, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Sept 11, 2019

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: Sept 11, 2019

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

August 5, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: August 5, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

June 14, 2019

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: June 14, 2019

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

May 17, 2019

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 17, 2019

Previous Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

February 21, 2019

Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: February 21, 2019

Previous Scene: Moderately Bearish

Current Scene: Bullish/Transitional Bullish

January 22, 2019

Moderately Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: January 22, 2019

Previous Scene: Transitional Bearish

Current Scene: Moderately Bearish

December 21, 2018

Transitional  Bearish

Reallocation Signal Date: December 21, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Transitional Bearish

October 11, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: October 11, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

May 10, 2018

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: May 10, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

March 23, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 23, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

March 6, 2018

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: March 6, 2018

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

February 9, 2018

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: February 9, 2018

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

April 20, 2017

Moderately Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: April 20, 2017

Previous Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Current Scene: Moderately Bullish

April 13, 2017

Cautiously Bullish

Reallocation Signal Date: April 13, 2017

Previous Scene: Moderately Bullish

Current Scene: Cautiously Bullish

Contact us for allocation history prior to 2017.