What we are experiencing right now - not just in the markets, but even closer to home - in our businesses, our families and our personal lives, is truly a black swan event. Anyone who is feeling anxiety and fear about the future is not alone. When all else fails, it is important to remember that we are all in this together.
At Cabana, we are more committed now than ever before to providing our clients and advisor partners with the knowledge, updates and reassurance that they need to stay diligent and stay invested.
Our investment process and the foundation of our business was built with the primary goal of minimizing losses in volatile markets – even the most extraordinary of volatile markets.
We have always believed that if we can minimize losses and manage expectations when things get ugly, clients will stay invested and therefore, have the ability to capture returns when the market improves. We believe that in times like these, it is critical that investors have a process that they understand and trust.
To help our clients, our advisor partners… and really anyone who needs it right now, we have compiled a collection of resources, blog posts and perspectives on the current market and our process.
We just closed out an epic monthly rally in the broad U.S. equity indices. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all up more than 10% for the month despite yesterday’s pullback. On November 15, stocks broke out of a two-month extremely volatile trading range. The previous high reached in early September by the S&P… Read the full article.
The past week has seen continued rotation into cyclical assets like industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, financials, and even beaten down energy. We have been watching for this since August when we first pointed out the divergence between big tech and everything else. We pointed out then that we would eventually need to see other sectors… Read the full article.
For a change this week, I’d like to provide some insight into what it means (good and bad) to have a rules-based process. There is a chart of the S&P 500 over the past three years for reference on Page 2 of this commentary. My idea for this week’s commentary comes as a result of… Read the full article.
Each week when I sit down to write our weekly commentary, I seem to exceed my previous week’s amazement at the world around us. We elected a new president (sort of). A Biden victory was expected to be bad for equity markets according to the majority of experts. So, what happened as soon as it… Read the full article.
On October 12, the broad U.S. equity market (SPY) came within a whisker of its all-time high reached less than six weeks earlier. The positive stock performance was based on hopes for improving corporate earnings going forward, an additional stimulus package, and Covid-19 having taken a backseat in our country’s collective conscious. Since then, we have… Read the full article.
Volatility continues and all major U.S. indices have dropped back to their respective 50-day moving averages. This follows a week of steady selling. The S&P 500 has dropped nearly 4% in that time. Third quarter earnings season is in full swing. As we have pointed out, companies across the board are doing better than was… Read the full article.
We have been watching the S&P 500 as it battles to reclaim its 50-day moving average. Last week ended with the index settling just below it. Weekly closes are more important than daily closes when it comes to technical analysis. The late selling on Friday was likely the result of President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis coming to… Read the full article.
U.S. equity indexes continue to experience heightened volatility. This has been the case for much of September and should come as no surprise given the season and all that investors have on their plate. We have been watching the S&P 500 closely as a proxy for the broad equity market. Seven trading days ago it… Read the full article.
Equity markets resumed selling after the Federal Reserve meeting last Wednesday. The 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 was promptly broken, and closed well beneath that important technical average on Friday. It appears that investors are finally concluding that the only way out of the economic hole we are in will be a tough… Read the full article.
Markets continue to be volatile this week as investors try to determine whether we have come too far too fast off the March lows. The good news is that the 50-day moving average (SPY) has survived three tests in the past five trading days. For those market technicians out there, it is also notable that… Read the full article.
Equity markets hit a wall on Thursday and selling began in earnest for the first time since March. In my opinion, the straight up move in equity indexes since the March 23 low was not supported by the country’s basic economics. I have previously discussed the lack of participation by many important sectors, as well… Read the full article.
The S&P 500 has officially closed out weekly trading at new all-time highs. It is now up nearly 8% for the year. We have watched this “broad” index battle to pass February highs over the past several weeks. It follows the tech-focused Nasdaq, which did so earlier in the summer and has continued to plow higher… Read the full article.
This past week the S&P 500 battled resistance at its previous all-time highs (just below 3400). We had two consecutive record closes, only to fall back after the Wednesday release of minutes from the previous Federal Reserve meeting. Those minutes revealed just how much uncertainty exists within the minds of our central bankers. The gist is… Read the full article.
Equity markets continue to push higher in the face of ongoing uncertainty. We discussed last week that the next probable stop for the S&P 500 (SPY) is the February high of 3400. We continue to move in that direction. All eyes are currently on Congress as coronavirus relief package negotiations resume this week. It is… Read the full article.
My apologies to everyone for the late commentary this week. I spent the last five days on a golf and BBQ tour across the beautiful state of Arkansas in an RV with my son Jack. Truth be told, we only made it two nights in the RV before we had enough of the “roughing it”… Read the full article.
The benchmark S&P 500 index has officially broken out above 3200 and, in doing so, broken out of its two-month trading range. We have been watching this unfold for several weeks now. It appeared that the likelihood of a move to higher prices was greater than a pullback after equity markets survived several serious attempts… Read the full article.
Equity markets moved to the high end of their trading range over the past week. For those keeping track, the S&P 500 has been rangebound between 3000 and 3200 for the better part of two months. During this time, there were two occasions that sharp and rapid selling threatened to cause a break below 3000… Read the full article.
The S&P 500 closed on Friday just below its 200-day moving average. This was the culmination of a 5% drop for the week. The Dow and Nasdaq suffered an equally bad week. This is the second serious technical challenge that the S&P 500 has faced in the month of June. The selling was prompted by… Read the full article.
U.S. equity markets continue to be range bound but hold above the all-important 200-day moving average at 3000 (S&P 500). I read over the weekend that there remains a record amount of money in cash via money market accounts. The belief among the “experts” is that this is evidence that the rally off the March 23… Read the full article.
Two weeks ago, we commented on the ongoing test faced by the broad indices at their respective 200-day moving average. We noted that if equity markets were able to regain and hold above that important technical level, we were likely to see prices move significantly higher as institutional money was forced off of the sidelines… Read the full article.
In response to a truly extraordinary and painful week in the world equity markets, I believe it is appropriate to update all those who have entrusted us with their hard earned money on where we stand following the drop from all-time highs in the broad U.S. markets that began on February 19. I also think it is… Read the full article.
A Letter to our Clients, Colleagues and Advisor Partners After weeks of uncertainty and panic, it is now clear that what is taking place across the globe is heavily impacting our nation, our businesses, our communities, our families and our day to day lives. How long it lasts and how it all plays out is unknown. The one thing… Read the full article.
Adjusting Risk Within the Economic Cycle Discover A Better Way To Manage Investor Expectations In this paper, we propose a framework for managing investment risk and setting performance expectations on the frontend of the investment process. This methodology, which is built around what we call the Cyclical Asset Reallocation Algorithm (CARA), is designed to identify… Read the full article.
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