What we are experiencing right now - not just in the markets, but even closer to home - in our businesses, our families and our personal lives, is truly a black swan event. Anyone who is feeling anxiety and fear about the future is not alone. When all else fails, it is important to remember that we are all in this together.
At Cabana, we are more committed now than ever before to providing our clients and advisor partners with the knowledge, updates and reassurance that they need to stay diligent and stay invested.
Our investment process and the foundation of our business was built with the primary goal of minimizing losses in volatile markets – even the most extraordinary of volatile markets.
We have always believed that if we can minimize losses and manage expectations when things get ugly, clients will stay invested and therefore, have the ability to capture returns when the market improves. We believe that in times like these, it is critical that investors have a process that they understand and trust.
To help our clients, our advisor partners… and really anyone who needs it right now, we have compiled a collection of resources, blog posts and perspectives on the current market and our process.
Markets continue to be volatile this week as investors try to determine whether we have come too far too fast off the March lows. The good news is that the 50-day moving average (SPY) has survived three tests in the past five trading days. For those market technicians out there, it is also notable that… Read the full article.
Equity markets hit a wall on Thursday and selling began in earnest for the first time since March. In my opinion, the straight up move in equity indexes since the March 23 low was not supported by the country’s basic economics. I have previously discussed the lack of participation by many important sectors, as well… Read the full article.
The S&P 500 has officially closed out weekly trading at new all-time highs. It is now up nearly 8% for the year. We have watched this “broad” index battle to pass February highs over the past several weeks. It follows the tech-focused Nasdaq, which did so earlier in the summer and has continued to plow higher… Read the full article.
This past week the S&P 500 battled resistance at its previous all-time highs (just below 3400). We had two consecutive record closes, only to fall back after the Wednesday release of minutes from the previous Federal Reserve meeting. Those minutes revealed just how much uncertainty exists within the minds of our central bankers. The gist is… Read the full article.
Equity markets continue to push higher in the face of ongoing uncertainty. We discussed last week that the next probable stop for the S&P 500 (SPY) is the February high of 3400. We continue to move in that direction. All eyes are currently on Congress as coronavirus relief package negotiations resume this week. It is… Read the full article.
My apologies to everyone for the late commentary this week. I spent the last five days on a golf and BBQ tour across the beautiful state of Arkansas in an RV with my son Jack. Truth be told, we only made it two nights in the RV before we had enough of the “roughing it”… Read the full article.
The benchmark S&P 500 index has officially broken out above 3200 and, in doing so, broken out of its two-month trading range. We have been watching this unfold for several weeks now. It appeared that the likelihood of a move to higher prices was greater than a pullback after equity markets survived several serious attempts… Read the full article.
Equity markets moved to the high end of their trading range over the past week. For those keeping track, the S&P 500 has been rangebound between 3000 and 3200 for the better part of two months. During this time, there were two occasions that sharp and rapid selling threatened to cause a break below 3000… Read the full article.
The S&P 500 closed on Friday just below its 200-day moving average. This was the culmination of a 5% drop for the week. The Dow and Nasdaq suffered an equally bad week. This is the second serious technical challenge that the S&P 500 has faced in the month of June. The selling was prompted by… Read the full article.
U.S. equity markets continue to be range bound but hold above the all-important 200-day moving average at 3000 (S&P 500). I read over the weekend that there remains a record amount of money in cash via money market accounts. The belief among the “experts” is that this is evidence that the rally off the March 23… Read the full article.
Two weeks ago, we commented on the ongoing test faced by the broad indices at their respective 200-day moving average. We noted that if equity markets were able to regain and hold above that important technical level, we were likely to see prices move significantly higher as institutional money was forced off of the sidelines… Read the full article.
We have spent the past few weeks discussing the need to have a rules-based process in place that helps take the emotion out of investing when markets appear to disconnect from what we perceive as reality. This “perception” issue has long been studied within the field of behavioral finance and psychology. Humans are by nature… Read the full article.
Equity markets closed out the month of May with big gains. The S&P 500 climbed more than 5% for the month despite a lot of volatility. Swings of more than 1% a day were the norm as investors continue to try and sort through the carnage that has been the past three months. These gains… Read the full article.
Equity markets worldwide continue to climb in the face of dire economics. In two decades of investing I have never seen a starker example of investors immediately setting the bar for a worst-case scenario and then just as quickly repricing as if anything but the catastrophic appear inevitable. The last three months (and perhaps the… Read the full article.
The past week saw continued volatility as equities sold off Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday just below the 200-day moving average and right at the late April highs. Major indices opened down more than 1% on Thursday and Friday, only to make their way to positive territory by the close. This is a big positive on… Read the full article.
Major stock indices gained more than 3% last week, continuing a remarkable bounce off the March 23 bottom. The S&P 500 is testing both its 200-day moving average and the late April high just under 3000. The speed and size of the price gains over the past six weeks has not been seen since the… Read the full article.
Equity markets finished off April with the biggest monthly gain since 1974. The huge rally followed an even bigger decline in March. Face-ripping rallies are common in bear markets, although it must be noted that this one was especially quick. The S&P 500 moved all the way back to its 200-day moving average, just below… Read the full article.
As our country begins to consider reopening for business, I am left wondering how we will forever be changed? Will we shake hands with new acquaintances? Will we travel for meetings or will we stay put and Zoom? Will home delivery of food, groceries and other goods become the norm? Will college education be an… Read the full article.
We’re mixing things up this week. The below commentary is a compilation of the questions and answers that came out of a monthly webinar our team hosted last week with professional advisors around the country. The advisors that participated are currently using our portfolios for their own clients, and in my opinion, had some very… Read the full article.
Investors in markets of all types continue to try and assess the damage to corporate earnings that will be seen over the next few months as a result of the coronavirus. This analysis leads to repricing of all assets, not merely stocks. It is very important to understand that investments across all major asset classes… Read the full article.
In response to a truly extraordinary and painful week in the world equity markets, I believe it is appropriate to update all those who have entrusted us with their hard earned money on where we stand following the drop from all-time highs in the broad U.S. markets that began on February 19. I also think it is… Read the full article.
A Letter to our Clients, Colleagues and Advisor Partners After weeks of uncertainty and panic, it is now clear that what is taking place across the globe is heavily impacting our nation, our businesses, our communities, our families and our day to day lives. How long it lasts and how it all plays out is unknown. The one thing… Read the full article.
Adjusting Risk Within the Economic Cycle Discover A Better Way To Manage Investor Expectations In this paper, we propose a framework for managing investment risk and setting performance expectations on the frontend of the investment process. This methodology, which is built around what we call the Cyclical Asset Reallocation Algorithm (CARA), is designed to identify… Read the full article.
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