This past week we saw major U.S. indices tread water at their all-time highs. Underneath the hood, money is rotating from low beta assets such as bonds, real estate, utilities and dividend payers, into cyclical assets like technology, transportation, energy and industrials. Financials continue to benefit from rising long-term interest rates and a steepening of the… Read the full article.
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Our market commentary earlier this week touched on the internal rotation into risk assets that we’ve seen over the past month. In follow up, I have shared below a chart of performance within the various sectors of the broad U.S. equity market over the past 30 days. As you can see, money has rotated into… Read the full article.
The Fourth Quarter Rally We’ve Been Hoping For: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – November 4, 2019
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed last week at all-time highs. For the past several weeks we have noted improving conditions, which resulted in market participants reallocating to risk assets. Higher beta stocks like technology, small caps and emerging markets are outperforming defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples and real estate. Financials are getting a… Read the full article.
Last week, we noted overall improvement in underlying economic conditions. That trend has continued. Earnings here in the U.S. have been better than expected, with a number of upside sales surprises. This data suggests that the ongoing trade dispute with China is having a muted impact on companies’ ability to make money. The 10-year Treasury yield continues… Read the full article.
Relatively strong earnings reports over the past week in the U.S. helped push our major stock indexes back within reach of their all-time highs. Banks and other financial firms brought in stellar reports. This has caused the financial sector to take the lead among equity components of the S&P 500. The Sector SPDR Index (XLF) is up… Read the full article.
Equity markets set politics aside last week and focused on renewed hope of a trade deal between the U.S. and China. Initial reports were that the two countries had agreed to a “phase one” (of several) compromise. It was reported that the Chinese government would commit to the purchase of U.S. agricultural products and the U.S…. Read the full article.
Last week saw more of the same volatility that has plagued equity markets since April. Over the past six months there have been no less than five trends encompassing moves up/down in stock prices greater than 5%. These wild swings in stocks have been accompanied by similar moves in bond yields and bond prices. All… Read the full article.
Question: Why do some Target Drawdown Portfolios add risk, while others reduce risk during the same reallocation? Shouldn’t all portfolios add risk at the same time? And likewise, shouldn’t all portfolios reduce risk at the same time? Answer: At Cabana, we reallocate portfolios and the assets that they contain in response to a variety of… Read the full article.
The past week saw continued selling in U.S. equity markets. The S&P 500 ended slightly more than 2% below all-time highs. Given all the recent impeachment noise, mixed messages regarding our trade with China, the Iran crisis and more, September ended on relatively good terms for investors. While domestic manufacturing is in a technical recession… Read the full article.
Fed Cuts Interest Rates Again as We Continue to Keep our Head Above Water: Weekly Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – September 23, 2019
During the past week, major U.S indexes reached resistance at summer highs before pulling back and churning 1.3% lower (S&P 500). On Wednesday, Chairman Powell and the Federal Reserve lowered the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points. This is exactly what bond and equity markets were pricing in, and despite some perceived hawkishness… Read the full article.
We’ve seen remarkable volatility across all markets (stock, bond, commodities etc.) since the end of July. This volatility stems from investors’ search for clarity and stability within the ongoing trade war with China, and the resulting impacts on GDP here at home and abroad. Additionally, our central bank and interest rates are very much in play…. Read the full article.
I am writing today’s market commentary from Dallas. Tomorrow morning, I have been asked to be a panelist at the Texas RIA Summit. One of the main topics for discussion is how to manage portfolios given the risks anticipated in 2020. I thought I would incorporate my presentation tomorrow with our weekly discussion. The past… Read the full article.
The Long-Awaited End to a Very Volatile August… What’s Next?: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – September 3, 2019
Last week was the end of a very volatile August. The month consisted of market swings between 2 and 3% daily. U.S. indexes lost between 1.5 and 2% overall. During this time, bond yields plummeted and are now at multi-year lows. There was also inversion in the yield curve, whereby the 2-year Treasury note is… Read the full article.
The First Real Signs of a Trade War with China: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – August 26, 2019
Over the past week, we saw the first real signs of what could be a full-blown trade war with China. The U.S. and China both announced substantial new tariffs on each other, and President Trump then stated that U.S. companies with business in China should immediately find another supplier. Equity markets around the world sold off… Read the full article.
Yield Curve Inversion, Trade Dispute and Weak Economies World Wide…Are We Headed for a Recession?: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – August 19, 2019
Markets continue to be extremely volatile as we head into the second half of the month. This is true of both equities and bonds. Prices are moving up and down more than one percent on a daily basis. Defensive equities like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare have outperformed growth and cyclical stocks since the end… Read the full article.
Investors Rush to Safety as Market Declines Continue: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – August 12 2019
World equity markets remain volatile following the steep selloff that began at the end of July. There was a drop of more than 7% in the S&P 500, followed by a rebound of nearly 5%, followed immediately by a decline of 2%. That broad U.S. index currently sits 4.63% below its late July high. The… Read the full article.
Stock Market Selloff Deepens After Fed Remarks and Trade Negotiation Setback: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – August 5, 2019
As of this writing, stock markets around the globe are taking a beating. The selloff began on Wednesday of last week in response to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments indicating that more rate cuts are not planned, and that last week’s 25 basis point cut was simply an “adjustment”. The next day, President Trump… Read the full article.
This week’s commentary is a special one. I hope that you enjoy it as much as I did working on it. Last week much of our Cabana team traveled to New York to meet with WisdomTree and their principals. I have always been an admirer of the company and a big believer in the economic… Read the full article.
Markets around the world have remained subdued over the past week as equities and bonds have traded within a tight range, just below all time highs in the case of the S&P 500. The 10 Year Treasury Yield is rangebound between 2% and 2.10%, causing bonds and other interest rate sensitive assets to tread water…. Read the full article.
Markets Hit New Highs in the Wake of Last Week’s Fed Remarks: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – July 15, 2019
Chairman Powell walked the line between giving too much and too little in the way of monetary accommodation during prepared remarks to Congress last week. Markets have responded positively and are at all-time highs. We will see if we get follow through after the Fed meeting later in the month and a decision on a… Read the full article.