We just closed out an epic monthly rally in the broad U.S. equity indices. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all up more than 10% for the month despite yesterday’s pullback. On November 15, stocks broke out of a two-month extremely volatile trading range. The previous high reached in early September by the S&P… Read the full article.
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Sector Rotation Proves Transition to Bullish Conditions: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – November 23, 2020
The past week has seen continued rotation into cyclical assets like industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, financials, and even beaten down energy. We have been watching for this since August when we first pointed out the divergence between big tech and everything else. We pointed out then that we would eventually need to see other sectors… Read the full article.
The Cost of Rules-Based Reallocation During Periods of Market Volatility: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – November 16, 2020
For a change this week, I’d like to provide some insight into what it means (good and bad) to have a rules-based process. There is a chart of the S&P 500 over the past three years for reference on Page 2 of this commentary. My idea for this week’s commentary comes as a result of… Read the full article.
There is Hope… and it is Showing up in the Stock Market: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – November 9, 2020
Each week when I sit down to write our weekly commentary, I seem to exceed my previous week’s amazement at the world around us. We elected a new president (sort of). A Biden victory was expected to be bad for equity markets according to the majority of experts. So, what happened as soon as it… Read the full article.
Volatility Continues in the Days Leading up to the Election: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – November 2, 2020
Since October 12, broad equity markets (SPY) are down 7% and have broken through important short-term technical support and the 50-day moving average, just below 340. A test of the all-important 200-day moving average at 312 appears inevitable. Big tech leaders like Amazon and Apple have led the selling. It is generally cause for concern when… Read the full article.
Is Today’s Stock Market Just a Reflection of Ourselves?: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – October 28, 2020
On October 12, the broad U.S. equity market (SPY) came within a whisker of its all-time high reached less than six weeks earlier. The positive stock performance was based on hopes for improving corporate earnings going forward, an additional stimulus package, and Covid-19 having taken a backseat in our country’s collective conscious. Since then, we have… Read the full article.
Volatility continues and all major U.S. indices have dropped back to their respective 50-day moving averages. This follows a week of steady selling. The S&P 500 has dropped nearly 4% in that time. Third quarter earnings season is in full swing. As we have pointed out, companies across the board are doing better than was… Read the full article.
What a difference a week makes! We have been watching the broad equity market (S&P 500) battle to reclaim its 50-day moving average for the last three weeks. It has moved above and below that important technical level multiple times, with the most recent close above it being October 7. Since then, buyers stepped in… Read the full article.
We have been watching the S&P 500 as it battles to reclaim its 50-day moving average. Last week ended with the index settling just below it. Weekly closes are more important than daily closes when it comes to technical analysis. The late selling on Friday was likely the result of President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis coming to… Read the full article.
Volatile Markets Continue as We Approach an All-Important Earnings Season: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – September 28, 2020
U.S. equity indexes continue to experience heightened volatility. This has been the case for much of September and should come as no surprise given the season and all that investors have on their plate. We have been watching the S&P 500 closely as a proxy for the broad equity market. Seven trading days ago it… Read the full article.
Equity markets resumed selling after the Federal Reserve meeting last Wednesday. The 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 was promptly broken, and closed well beneath that important technical average on Friday. It appears that investors are finally concluding that the only way out of the economic hole we are in will be a tough… Read the full article.
Volatile Markets and Wildfires Continue, But Not All News is Bad: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – September 14, 2020
Markets continue to be volatile this week as investors try to determine whether we have come too far too fast off the March lows. The good news is that the 50-day moving average (SPY) has survived three tests in the past five trading days. For those market technicians out there, it is also notable that… Read the full article.
Stocks Enter Uncharted Waters During Most Volatile Time of the Year: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – September 8, 2020
Equity markets hit a wall on Thursday and selling began in earnest for the first time since March. In my opinion, the straight up move in equity indexes since the March 23 low was not supported by the country’s basic economics. I have previously discussed the lack of participation by many important sectors, as well… Read the full article.
Is the S&P 500 a True Reflection of the U.S. Economy?: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – August 31, 2020
The S&P 500 has officially closed out weekly trading at new all-time highs. It is now up nearly 8% for the year. We have watched this “broad” index battle to pass February highs over the past several weeks. It follows the tech-focused Nasdaq, which did so earlier in the summer and has continued to plow higher… Read the full article.
Tech Companies Lead the S&P 500 to Record Highs: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – August 24, 2020
This past week the S&P 500 battled resistance at its previous all-time highs (just below 3400). We had two consecutive record closes, only to fall back after the Wednesday release of minutes from the previous Federal Reserve meeting. Those minutes revealed just how much uncertainty exists within the minds of our central bankers. The gist is… Read the full article.
There are Many Unknowns, but the Market Continues to March On: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – August 18, 2020
The S&P 500 and the Dow continue their respective attempts to break through the all-time highs established in February. Both major indices have been trading in a tight range just below those levels for the better part of the last two weeks. The tech-focused Nasdaq has already done so and has set numerous records over the… Read the full article.
The S&P 500 Inches Closer to All-Time Highs, Encouraged by Q2 Earnings: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – August 10, 2020
Major equity indices are positive for the year. The Nasdaq is now at all-time highs on the back of blowout performance from Amazon, Google, Facebook and Netflix. These companies, along with the tech sector in general, have thrived amid social distancing and remote working. Technology is the driver of innovation and will continue to benefit as… Read the full article.
Equity markets continue to push higher in the face of ongoing uncertainty. We discussed last week that the next probable stop for the S&P 500 (SPY) is the February high of 3400. We continue to move in that direction. All eyes are currently on Congress as coronavirus relief package negotiations resume this week. It is… Read the full article.
My apologies to everyone for the late commentary this week. I spent the last five days on a golf and BBQ tour across the beautiful state of Arkansas in an RV with my son Jack. Truth be told, we only made it two nights in the RV before we had enough of the “roughing it”… Read the full article.
The benchmark S&P 500 index has officially broken out above 3200 and, in doing so, broken out of its two-month trading range. We have been watching this unfold for several weeks now. It appeared that the likelihood of a move to higher prices was greater than a pullback after equity markets survived several serious attempts… Read the full article.