Three good things happened last week. First, our government avoided a catastrophic debt default and passed a resolution to raise the debt ceiling. Second, we got a really solid jobs report. Hiring continued to grow unabated despite all types of threats to the economy and, importantly, wage growth slowed at the same time. This was… Read the full article.
We head into the Memorial Day weekend with no deal on the debt ceiling and another hot inflation report. The Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), came in above month-over-month and annual estimates. This has resulted in a jump in probability that the Fed will hike rates again… Read the full article.
We had our quarterly workshop in Dallas last week and I want to thank our partners around the country who came down and worked with us. I can’t tell you how much these mean to me personally and to Cabana as a whole. I leave each of these with new ideas and renewed passion to… Read the full article.
Year to date, we have seen the major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow) move higher on the back of mega cap technology stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. We know this because the aforementioned indices are market cap weighted such that the larger the company in the index, the more its performance impacts the… Read the full article.
The stock market remains rangebound and indecisive heading into the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins on May 2. The policy statement and interest rate determination will occur the following afternoon. Most analysts are predicting another 25-basis point hike, bringing the Fed funds rate to 5-5.25%. It is astonishing to think only a… Read the full article.
We have spent the past couple of commentaries looking under the hood, so to speak, of the equity market in an attempt to determine if the current rally has any legs to it – or is simply the next in a series of head fakes that we have endured during the past thirteen months. … Read the full article.
Last week we did our monthly webinar for our partner advisors around the country and attempted to do a deep dive into what is going on in this crazy market. We pulled quite a few charts and took a look at what is driving the market on the up days as well as the down… Read the full article.
Stocks entered free fall over the past few trading days as a huge bank (Silicon Valley Bank) failed due to a run on deposits coupled with bond losses resulting from the pace and size of interest rate hikes over the past year. Almost immediately, two other banks suffered the same fate. The Federal Reserve and… Read the full article.
Last week we discussed the apparent failure of the S&P 500 (SPX) to hold its’ early February breakout above resistance at 4100. The reversal to lower prices came as investors realized that inflation remains an ongoing problem and rates would likely need to rise further (and perhaps faster) than expected. This same reality continues to… Read the full article.
Stocks moved lower in February as interest rates rose. This is a pattern that has been in place for over a year now – stocks fall when rates rise and vice versa. Bond yields peaked in October, leading to a rally in stocks that continued (albeit rocky) through the end of January. Since then, yields have jumped from 3.39%… Read the full article.
Over the last ten days we have seen two hot inflation data points come in. The January CPI number came in above estimates and this was followed by a higher-than-expected PPI number at the end of last week. All of this comes on the back of exceptionally strong labor market reports. It appears investors are… Read the full article.
The stock market continues to battle through resistance and hold gains realized since the beginning of the year. This is no small feat in my opinion given all that investors are dealing with. Questions abound at every turn and there are as many seemingly reasonable opinions as there are talking heads. Are we in a… Read the full article.
Last week we took a look at some potentially important positive technical changes in the broad U.S. stock market. We used the S&P 500 as a proxy and will do the same today. We also noted that the January rally in stocks was in anticipation of the Fed meeting, which concluded yesterday. I felt like… Read the full article.
Equity markets have continued to make technical progress over the past week. We find ourselves at a juncture where numerous indicators have converged. I have pulled a chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) from StockCharts.com and included it below for reference. Technical analysis is always a bit subjective, so take what I see with… Read the full article.
Stocks have now booked two straight weeks of gains to start 2023. This is a positive sign to me after what was a dismal 2022. Importantly, the benchmark S&P 500 is now back above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This makes the fourth time since last spring that we have seen an… Read the full article.
The new year has brought more of the same volatility as investors struggle to balance the odds of a recession this year with continued economic resilience. The Federal Reserve is still providing a hawkish backdrop at every opportunity. They have made it abundantly clear that short-term interest rates will need to move above 5% (and… Read the full article.
This last commentary of 2022 comes with gratitude. I am grateful for my partners around the country, my clients and the amazing people inside Cabana – all of whom have fought through the historically difficult year we have just experienced. I won’t belabor the myriad issues that have made the past year unique for investors…. Read the full article.
Despite getting a good CPI report Tuesday and a big initial rally, the broad stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) gave up the majority of gains and the S&P 500 closed below it’s 200-day moving average. Yesterday, we got the expected 50 basis point increase in the Fed fund’s rate. The rate is… Read the full article.
It appears to me that investors may have once again sold the most recent rally attempt in stocks, which began in the middle of October. Despite surviving a test of support at the 3900 level two weeks ago, clearing 4000 (SPY) and favorable seasonality, the major equity indices all immediately dropped as soon as the S&P… Read the full article.
The major stock indices managed to grind out a gain in the holiday-shortened week. This followed two weeks of digesting gains and testing prior support after the major move up on November 10. I previously suggested that this process was necessary, and we needed to see 3900 hold on the S&P 500 for a year-end… Read the full article.