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Babies, Rate Cuts and Elections… Oh My!: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – November 1, 2024 

2 months ago

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We are back after a one-month hiatus following the birth of Mason Benjamin Searcy, the beautiful baby boy of Georgia Searcy, our CMO and head of all things communication. By the way… he is also my grandson. Did I mention he was beautiful? 

So, what’s been going on in the markets? We have seen interest rates climb throughout October as hotter-than-expected inflation and a resilient economy has caused investors to question the path of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in the near certainty of another 25 basis point cut next week, but after that things look uncertain. Interest rates are also being pressured by bets that Trump wins the White House. Wall Street views his policies as inflationary, primarily due to the impacts proposed tariffs will have on prices. All in all, bonds and other interest-rate-sensitive assets just can’t catch a break. We are now three years into what may be the worst sustained bond market in history. I am also hearing more and more talk about how the ballooning deficit is causing the bond market to begin to quiver. Talk about adding insult to injury. 

Stocks seem to be able to hang in there despite all else that’s going on. Volatility remains elevated as evidenced by the 1-2% swings we are seeing. The first half of October saw indices march higher, and the second half saw them give those gains back. 

Then there is the little thing next Tuesday that is worthy of attention. Our never-ending race for the Presidency will be decided. Or will it be? Sometimes it seems like the last one still isn’t decided. It is well established that markets like certainty and I am not sure we get much of that anymore. Maybe that will improve and the next week should give us a preview. 

Finally, let us acknowledge that the collective wisdom of millions and millions of investors causes all of what I just wrote to be “priced in”. Nobody outsmarts the stock or bond market (at least not for long or legally). So, we do what we can do, which is have a plan and stick to it. I don’t think anyone should take on more risk than they can stomach. It matters not how quick and how much you make if you give it all back… or worse yet, quit altogether due to emotional pain. It’s the long game that matters in investing. 

At Cabana, we remain in our Bullish Scene. 

Disclaimers

January 17, 2024

This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This material may only be distributed in its original format and may not be altered or reproduced without the prior written consent of Cabana. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.  

“CARA” is Cabana’s Cyclical Asset Reallocation Algorithm. Scenes assigned as per the judgment of The Cabana Group. Scene names and number of scenes have changed over time in an effort to obtain efficiencies and provide clarity of investment objective. 

This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.  

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV Part 2A or Form CRS. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investment strategies have different degrees of risk and the corresponding potential for profit or loss. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. “Target Drawdown” is merely a descriptive term used to describe the general strategy and objective of the portfolio, it is not a guarantee, nor should it be construed to suggest safety or protection from loss. There is no guarantee that portfolio performance will remain consistent with the targeted drawdown parameter. While risk tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account and there is no guarantee that Cabana’s strategies will be suitable for any investor. Investors and advisors should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. It is the responsibility of investment advisors to determine what is suitable for their clients. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors will vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.  

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All recommendations made in the prior 12 months are available upon request. Cabana’s allocation history is available here. For additional information regarding our services, including performance disclosures and award methodology, please visit https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/. 

Commonly used index/benchmark definitions:  

All indices and categories are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index or category. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Benchmark indices will likely materially differ from Cabana’s portfolio strategies. Detailed information as to how the returns are calculated can be obtained online from the following link: https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/performance-reporting-methodology/. 

Morningstar’s Moderate Target Risk index  follows a moderate equity risk preference and is based on well-established asset allocation methodology from Ibbotson Associates, a Morningstar company.  

Morningstar’s Tactical Allocation category includes portfolios that seek to provide capital appreciation and income by actively shifting allocations across investments. These portfolios have material shifts across equity regions, and bond sectors on a frequent basis. 

The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization weighted stock market index of 500 widely held large-cap stocks often used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market.  

The Russell 2000 and 3000 indices are market-capitalization weighted stock market indices that include, respectively, 2000 and 3000 of the most widely-held stocks and are often used as proxies for the U.S. stock market. 

The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-weight capitalization index that covers more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. What is the Nasdaq Composite, and What Companies are in It? | Nasdaq