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Stocks look to be finishing the week in the red. It seems like Fridays are always down days in the stock market, so that is not surprising in and of itself. What is a little surprising to me is that we saw the S&P 500 (SPY) reach a new high mid-week only to get two days… Read the full article.
We had a big week on the inflation front as we got the January CPI numbers on Wednesday and the PPI numbers on Thursday. The CPI is backward looking in that it reflects prices paid by consumers last month, while the PPI is forward looking and reflects what producers paid for raw goods last month… Read the full article.
Between the Trump tariff tango, the new plan for Gaza, the layoffs of thousands of government workers, corporate earnings and this morning’s unemployment data we have had a busy week indeed. Sometimes it is hard to tell what matters to us as investors and what is… well… something else. I do know that earnings, interest… Read the full article.
I talk quite a bit about the difference between the market cap weighted indices like the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) compared to the equal weight S&P 500 (RSP), and the false impression investors are often left with when it comes to what is really going on in the “market”. Yesterday was a… Read the full article.
This week investors of all types finally got some relief after a pretty brutal December and a weak start to 2025. It came in the form of cooler than expected inflation data. We got the producer price index for December (PPI) on Tuesday and the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday. Both numbers were below… Read the full article.
I hope everyone had a great holiday season and was able to focus on time with family and friends. Sometimes that isn’t easy, as the barrage of pressures can be relentless and unfortunately, can make it difficult to focus on what is really important. I think it is good to always remember that we are… Read the full article.
Let me start by apologizing for the irregular market commentary since October. Our marketing team (Georgia) had her second baby on September 27. He decided to come a little early and she has been out on maternity leave working on growing him up since then. He is doing great and she will be back full… Read the full article.
We got through the presidential election and the latest Federal Reserve meeting without so much as a hiccup. The Fed dropped the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected. Trump won by a landslide, which was maybe not so expected. Investors took it all in stride and began rotating into sectors likely to… Read the full article.
We are back after a one-month hiatus following the birth of Mason Benjamin Searcy, the beautiful baby boy of Georgia Searcy, our CMO and head of all things communication. By the way… he is also my grandson. Did I mention he was beautiful? So, what’s been going on in the markets? We have seen interest… Read the full article.
After one of the biggest and fastest rate hike cycles in history, the Federal Reserve is all set to begin the unwinding of restrictive monetary policy of the past two years. Investors are pricing in a near certainty that we get our first rate cut tomorrow at the conclusion of the Central Bank’s September meeting…. Read the full article.
August ended with a great rally off the lows seen at the beginning of the month. Incredibly, all the major indices finished in the black after starting the month down more than 5% in just a few trading days. Bonds also rallied as yields fell in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s meeting beginning on September… Read the full article.
We have seen some choppy markets over the past week as both stocks and bonds tried to find equilibrium after the big rally since the August 5 bottom, and ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech on Friday. The Federal Reserve meets each year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for its annual retreat. Investors have been waiting… Read the full article.
Well, just as quickly as the market collapsed two weeks ago, it has now rebounded to recover most of those losses. I have included charts of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY) for a visual of what I am talking about. QQQ as of August 16, 2024 via Stockcharts.com: SPY as of… Read the full article.
I hope everyone is keeping perspective during this the current market selloff. I believe this correction in mega-cap technology (and by proxy the other market-cap weighted indices) is long overdue. The Nasdaq is down almost 15% in just a few weeks and has brought the S&P 500 down with it. This was inevitable in my… Read the full article.
We mentioned the long overdue rotation out of tech a couple of weeks ago and the likelihood that we would see the large market cap weighted indices (SPY and QQQ) suffer a pullback as a result. These indices have been the beneficiaries of the big tech AI phenomena for the past year and are now… Read the full article.
Stocks have moved higher over the past week, once again led by “Big Tech”. Bonds and corresponding yields have mainly stayed put. All this has occurred as investors waited for the release of Thursday’s June CPI report. Analysts were predicting a further drop in inflation compared to May (MOM or month-over-month) and this time last… Read the full article.
On Friday, we got some good news on the inflation front with a lower than forecast PCE report. This should have caused bond yields to drop and bond prices to rise. Stocks of all types should have followed suit with interest rate sensitive sectors like real estate, dividend payers, small caps and the like leading… Read the full article.
We are seeing some rotation out of tech, which I commented on last week. To me, this is necessary and gives us a chance for the market to broaden and other sectors to catch up. Simply put, one horse (no matter how big) cannot pull the weight of the world forever. On the economic front,… Read the full article.
We are starting to see some weaker economic data trickle in – a surprise drop in inflation data and higher jobless claims last week. This week we saw weaker than expected consumer spending (finally) and elevated jobless claims again. While we are still at historic lows in unemployment, claims are increasing. All this means the… Read the full article.
This past Friday, we got a very strong non-farm jobs number, yet unemployment overall ticked higher to 4%. This presents a bit of mixed messages on the economy, and the all-important interest rate situation. On one hand, businesses are still hiring, yet it appears to be limited to certain sectors. The headline employment rate has… Read the full article.
