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“August, die she must.” That line from Simon and Garfunkel’s song “April Come She Will” has always ripped my heart out. I love summer like nobody else and physically feel the pain of it ending every time. But this year I’m just ambivalent. Is there even summer anymore? One of my partners at Cabana, Michelle Alsobrook, shares an… Read the full article.
As many of you know, I have preached for years the importance of having a rules-based system when it comes to investing. It can be simple or complicated, but EVERY successful investor I have ever known has had a system. Warren Buffet has a system. William O’Neil has a system. The quant traders at Goldman… Read the full article.
The major US equity market indices have remained resilient in the face of significant adversity, which is a huge understatement. Despite the reemergence of COVID, masks and all-time highs in hospitalizations, buyers continue to step in on each dip. We received an absolutely horrible consumer confidence number on Friday, one of the biggest month-over-month drops in history and the lowest reading… Read the full article.
For those of you who have seen Groundhog Day (one of my all-time favorite movies), you know what I mean when I say it feels like we are all living the same thing over and over again. Four months ago, I wrote of seeing us all put COVID and the unbelievably difficult year of 2020 behind us. I discussed the… Read the full article.
Equity markets continue to struggle to reach higher ground despite strong earnings. Over the last several weeks we have discussed the relative weakness in many stocks, yet, impressively, stocks have not yet seen a sustained drop. Bond yields are signaling weakness going forward and a preference for safe yield over continued growth. I continue to believe we… Read the full article.
Last week we touched on the fact that market internals have been deteriorating over the past six weeks. Eventually, broad-based relative weakness in small caps, mid caps and other sectors of the S&P 500 pulled the large market cap-weighted indices (SPY, DIA, QQQ) down nearly 4% over the span of four days. This concluded with… Read the full article.
We have been watching the broad U.S. stock market’s internal technical condition over the past few weeks and have pointed out the divergence between market cap-weighted indices (that investors often reference) and everything else. Simply put, U.S. equities have been flashing warning signs for the past month. Leadership is confined to a few sectors and… Read the full article.
Major U.S. stock indices kicked off the week in positive territory and are at all-time highs. While these are at the forefront of what most people view as the “stock market,” they are market cap-weighted indices and only reflect the performance of a small sample of large companies. It is because of this that I… Read the full article.
I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend and is enjoying the short week. I love the 4th of July for several reasons, but at the top of my list is that I always get to be with all my kids at once – under one roof and on one boat! I say this all… Read the full article.
A realistic and stated inflation outlook provided by the Federal Reserve, paired with signs of bipartisan cooperation in reaching an infrastructure package, has stabilized equity markets after the sell off we saw just over a week ago. We are again at all-time highs and the volatility index (VIX) has fallen back below 20 at lows… Read the full article.
This past week we have seen U.S. equity markets edge up to new highs. The stock market’s performance has continued to impress us since March. In our view, this performance can be attributed to continued positive earnings, upbeat expectations for growth over the next 18 months and a pullback in interest rates following the historic… Read the full article.
I hope everyone’s week is off to a great start. With our CEO Chadd Mason on vacation this week, we wanted to provide a brief mid-week update on the markets and economy. The first three trading days of this week show the S&P 500 once again facing strong resistance at its all-time high. Additionally, the… Read the full article.
I’ll start by apologizing for the tardy commentary as a result of the holiday week. I hope everyone had a nice short week after a happy Memorial Day weekend spent with friends and family. I also hope some time was spent reflecting and honoring those who have made the ultimate sacrifice so that we can… Read the full article.
Relatively tame inflation data, a pullback in commodities, and continued dovish comments out of the Federal Reserve have all led to a growing feeling among investors that the big jump in inflation may be transitory after all. We have watched the bond market closely for the past two months to see if another leg up… Read the full article.
Volatility was the word of the week as we saw broad-based selling for three consecutive days to start last week. The Nasdaq led the drop, although all the major equity indices were down in the neighborhood of 4%. Fears of inflation, coupled with a terrible jobs report from the previous week, made for some serious… Read the full article.
Earnings season is wrapping up and more than 80% of all companies beat estimates. Aggregated earnings are projected to grow at an annual rate of 7% according to FactSet. This is not the double-digit growth we were seeing two years ago but is impressive nonetheless given all that has occurred in the past year. The… Read the full article.
U.S. equity markets finished the month of April with stellar performance. April gains were on the back a rally that began in early March after some choppy and sideways trading at the start of the year. The benchmark S&P 500 (SPY) finished up more than 11% year-to-date. Earnings continue to roll in and support the… Read the full article.
All major U.S. indices ended last week in the red, albeit only slightly. It was the first down week in the past three, and April overall has been strongly positive across the board. News of President Biden’s tax plan was the likely culprit for last week’s minor pullback. Markets sold off hard on the news… Read the full article.
Over the past week, equity markets moved higher, and interest rates continued to moderate. First quarter earnings will now be a large focus for investors in the next days and weeks. Banks kicked things off last Wednesday and reported big numbers. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo all beat estimates. As mentioned previously, FactSet is… Read the full article.
Equity markets continue to push through to all-time highs. The S&P 500 is now right at +10% year-to-date. Cyclical sectors, including energy, financials, industrials, and transportation, remain the leaders. By no means is the bull market limited to these areas, but these are the beneficiaries of a newly minted bull market. Demand side growth is… Read the full article.
