Equity and bond markets continue to swing wildly, with the ultimate outcome thus far this year ending to the downside. I just read that the S&P 500 is experiencing the worst start to an overall negative year since 1962. Add to that a historic bear market in bonds going on at the same time and you have… Read the full article.
I spend a fair portion of time working and talking with my advisor partners about the markets, about Cabana’s methodology, and how we are communicating with clients. As you might suspect, we spend more time discussing these things when markets become difficult, and clients see portfolios drop in value as assets get repriced throughout the… Read the full article.
I’d like to start by apologizing for our lack of commentary last week – especially considering the current market environment. Our team hosted our regular advisor webinar on Monday and traveled to a conference in Las Vegas in the later part of the week with several of our advisor partners to discuss the market and… Read the full article.
Overall, market conditions remain very difficult. We are mired in a storm of runaway inflation and concurrent historic rise in interest rates, a simultaneous selloff in stocks and bonds, geopolitical uncertainty putting additional upward pressure on interest rates and downward pressure on global growth, and finally a rapid transition from extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy to… Read the full article.
The inflation and interest rate story remains front and center on the minds of investors. The big question to me is how much pain has already been wrung out of the bond and fixed income markets. Fixed income investors just suffered their worst quarter in 40 years. As expectations increase for interest rates to rise… Read the full article.
The broad U.S. equity indices continue to recover from the rapid correction that began in January. We have seen two straight weeks of buyers coming back into the market. This has occurred despite short-term interest rates rising at a historic rate. The 10-year Treasury Bond has breached 2.5% and part of the yield curve has… Read the full article.
The much-anticipated March Federal Reserve meeting concluded last week, and Chairman Powell announced a 25 basis point increase in the Fed’s target funds rate. This was widely expected and is the first increase since 2018. More importantly, Chairman Powell said that the Board was prepared to aggressively address inflation pressure by continuing to raise rates… Read the full article.
As atrocities continue in Ukraine, the world of finance will momentarily turn its attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve tomorrow. It is widely expected that the Fed will announce its long anticipated decision on raising interest rates in an effort to normalize monetary policy after years (actual years) of stimulus. It began with the financial… Read the full article.
War rages on in Ukraine with daily reminders to the rest of the world that war equals horror and death. In my life of more than 50 years, there have been a handful of occasions when it hit home just how real and bad war is. Most of the other times, lucky people like me… Read the full article.
I will start today’s commentary with a prayer for peace and an end to war. There are times when talking about the gyrations of the stock market seems trivial and almost impolite. Today is one of those times. As a husband, father, grandfather and citizen of this earth, I am afraid. I am afraid that… Read the full article.
Difficult market conditions persist, with the Russia/Ukraine dispute front and center following Russia’s decision to “recognize the independence of” disputed territories in eastern Ukraine. As such, they moved incrementally towards a more significant armed conflict. The U.S. and European allies have responded with sanctions including Germany’s stopping the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia…. Read the full article.
Equity markets worldwide remain extremely volatile with swings of 1-2% daily. The benchmark S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq are still battling their respective 200-day moving averages. This important technical line between bull and bear conditions is being watched closely by institutional investors. The inability to close above that level is not a good sign… Read the full article.
Interest rates (particularly their rapid rise) remain front and center on investors’ minds. We are right in the middle of earnings season and the ongoing re-pricing of future earnings due to the forecasted rise in rates has made for a volatile and unpredictable stock market. What appears to be a strong fourth quarter report for… Read the full article.
I have to say, January could not end soon enough for me. As many of you know, we have been managing money professionally for a long time – and in all types of environments. Difficult market conditions are to be expected and are part of investing. To be successful over the long term, you must… Read the full article.
About 12 years ago, Cabana’s lead engineer David Covington and I were working on our original portfolio and were discussing why we felt like limiting big losses and protecting drawdown was so important to long-term success in investing. The first part is simple math. If you lose a lot in a bad market, you must… Read the full article.
The long weekend did not soothe bond or stock markets as evidenced by the continued sell-off yesterday. The correction in equities continues coincident with the ongoing drop in bond prices and jump in yields. I like to take things day by day and do not enjoy or value predictions as a rule, but it appears… Read the full article.
Just before Christmas we wrote a commentary suggesting that the easy low volatility investing might be coming to an end after more than a year of the broad equity indices moving up without a correction of more than 5%. Not only is such an unabated move up highly unusual, but it is not particularly healthy… Read the full article.
Well, 2022 is officially here. The last two years have really been a blur to me. I am sure the feeling is pretty much the same for everyone else. I am paid to talk about the markets, so I will. I think it is beyond remarkable that the broad stock indices realized up years… Read the full article.
U.S equity markets have been on almost a straight upward path for more than a year, with no pullback approaching a 10% “correction”. This unusual period of easy times may be coming to an end. The emergence of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, coupled with rising inflation and a tightening of monetary conditions by the Federal… Read the full article.
We ended last week’s commentary with a look at the major stock indices and pointed out that, despite an all-out sell off over the past few weeks, the broad market (S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) held important technical support at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This supported the view that bulls still held the stronger hand and… Read the full article.
