The last week certainly falls into the not so easy category when it comes to investing. Equities of all types have sold off… hard. Small caps and technology have gotten the worst of it, but that is largely due to the blue chips and industrials underperformance over the past several weeks. All major indices have fallen from 5-10% in the rush to exit risk assets. The culprit is alleged to be a combination of the Covid-19 Omicron… Read the full article.
The emergence of a new coronavirus strain dubbed Omicron sent world stock markets into freefall late last week. Whether this new threat sets us back economically remains to be seen. Initial reports suggest the variant is more transmissible than Delta and is likely to be less responsive to vaccination and treatment. The good news is that the early… Read the full article.
As predicted last week, market volatility has been elevated. Part of this, in my opinion, is due to seasonal (holiday) factors and part is due to the need to work through overbought conditions in the market cap-weighted indices, following the large move up beginning in early October. Yesterday, equity markets opened with significant gains across the board… Read the full article.
The major U.S. stock indices broke a six-week winning streak last week. This is despite a pretty strong day on Friday. As we have pointed out several times, some backfilling is entirely appropriate given the move up we have seen since early October. The New York Fed released its Manufacturing Index for November yesterday. Manufacturing activity exceeded expectations and appears to… Read the full article.
Equity markets continue upward on the back of strong earnings. Most of the companies (81%) in the S&P 500 that have reported, beat analysts’ forecasts. A blowout jobs number on Friday and muted response to the Fed’s announcement of its intent to taper bond purchases, have also contributed to eight straight days of gains by the benchmark S&P 500 (SPY). This is… Read the full article.
November is here and the holidays are around the corner. Time keeps on flying by. Sometimes I wish everything could just stop. Only for a while. Maybe for a month or two. Then I could catch up on all the things I need to do, the people I need to hug, the beautiful world I need to… Read the full article.
Earnings season remains in full swing. As of this morning, 162 companies in the S&P 500 have reported. Eighty two percent have beaten estimates – and by a median of 9%. These continue to be solid numbers. More importantly, the actual and projected growth trend is positive. This trend is ultimately weighed against current price… Read the full article.
Earnings season is now in full force and 55 companies have already reported their third quarter results (11% of the S&P 500). Of these, 85% beat their estimates – and by a median of 9%. We have another 76 companies reporting this week. We reiterated again last week that it is largely earnings that drive stock prices, and indirectly the relative attractiveness of other asset classes in the never-ending search… Read the full article.
Equity indices remain weak and volatile. Bond yields have continued to climb on the back of a perceived worldwide energy shortage. Typically, we see bond yields fall when stock prices drop (bond yields and prices move in the opposite direction). This is due in part to a flight to safety but, more importantly, as a result of forecast economic weakness and… Read the full article.
Two weeks ago, we pointed out that a long-overdue market correction had likely begun. Despite a snap back in prices that took place during the third week in September and some healthy rotation into cyclicals, the broad market cap-weighted indices have reversed to new lows. The S&P 500 (SPY) dropped 5% in September, for its worst month since March 2020. October hasn’t been much better, as the… Read the full article.
A few weeks ago, I mentioned that we were watching for a break above 140 bps (1.4%) on the ten-year treasury bond, coupled with a positive stock market close. We got just what we were looking for last week and the breakout held for an important technical “weekly close.” To me this is strong evidence of renewed belief in… Read the full article.
Well, the much anticipated market correction appears to be underway. We have recently touched on the numerous factors coming together at once as a catalyst for an inevitable pullback. The one which we did not see coming is the potential collapse of a really huge Chinese real estate company named Evergrande. It seems to be grand all right. Mainly in how much debt it has. Three-hundred billion… Read the full article.
The past week has seen the broad US equity markets drift lower. The S&P 500 dropped just under 2% over the course of four consecutive trading days. Today we saw some buyers step in and we finished in the black, albeit by a nose. September is traditionally weak and there are plenty of reasons for that trend to continue… Read the full article.
I hope this week’s commentary finds everyone safe and rested, following some time off spent with family and friends. Summer is over and it is time to get back after it. We should see an uptick in market volume as traders and institutional desks come back online. We may also see some renewed focus on the fundamentals underpinning our economy…. Read the full article.
“August, die she must.” That line from Simon and Garfunkel’s song “April Come She Will” has always ripped my heart out. I love summer like nobody else and physically feel the pain of it ending every time. But this year I’m just ambivalent. Is there even summer anymore? One of my partners at Cabana, Michelle Alsobrook, shares an… Read the full article.
As many of you know, I have preached for years the importance of having a rules-based system when it comes to investing. It can be simple or complicated, but EVERY successful investor I have ever known has had a system. Warren Buffet has a system. William O’Neil has a system. The quant traders at Goldman… Read the full article.
The major US equity market indices have remained resilient in the face of significant adversity, which is a huge understatement. Despite the reemergence of COVID, masks and all-time highs in hospitalizations, buyers continue to step in on each dip. We received an absolutely horrible consumer confidence number on Friday, one of the biggest month-over-month drops in history and the lowest reading… Read the full article.
For those of you who have seen Groundhog Day (one of my all-time favorite movies), you know what I mean when I say it feels like we are all living the same thing over and over again. Four months ago, I wrote of seeing us all put COVID and the unbelievably difficult year of 2020 behind us. I discussed the… Read the full article.
Equity markets continue to struggle to reach higher ground despite strong earnings. Over the last several weeks we have discussed the relative weakness in many stocks, yet, impressively, stocks have not yet seen a sustained drop. Bond yields are signaling weakness going forward and a preference for safe yield over continued growth. I continue to believe we… Read the full article.
Last week we touched on the fact that market internals have been deteriorating over the past six weeks. Eventually, broad-based relative weakness in small caps, mid caps and other sectors of the S&P 500 pulled the large market cap-weighted indices (SPY, DIA, QQQ) down nearly 4% over the span of four days. This concluded with… Read the full article.
