We Have an Important Couple of Weeks Ahead of Us: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – November 23, 2022

1 year ago

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As we head into the holiday season, let’s start this commentary by acknowledging what matters most – our friends and family. All our successes and failures in life are meaningless without the people who are there to share them. The older I get, the more this hits home. Today, I want to say a special thank you to my wife, who has supported me through thick and thin and lifted me up when I have fallen. She was doing it in 1986, and she has done it this year. I want to thank my mother who believed I could do anything and instilled that belief in me. I want to thank my children who amaze and teach me every day. I am blessed. Lastly, thank you to my advisor partners and clients who have trusted us with their reputations and hard-earned money. I do not ever take that for granted and work to earn it every day. 

The stock market’s major indices are working to digest the gains seen following the October CPI report. I suggested last week that we needed to see markets hold the gains and, importantly, test previous levels of support. For the S&P 500, that level is 3900. We saw that test last week and we survived. I also suggested that it would be a positive if that index could close above 4000 on an end of week basis. We saw yesterday’s close right at that level. All of this looks constructive to me and consistent with a year-end rally. The Dow and Mid Cap indices have cleared their 200-day moving averages. The S&P 500 is closing in as well. If we can somehow see it close above the 4050 level, I think we have a legitimate shot at the August highs, which were at 4300. As I see it, that in and of itself would be a major accomplishment, but it is by no means assured. We have a lot of data and the Federal Reserve in front of us over the next two weeks. I suspect that inflation numbers and the corresponding Fed interest rate decision will carry the day. For now, data seems to indicate that inflation has peaked and is trending down. The bond market is expecting a smaller increase in rates and if this plays out as expected, we may be good to go.  

Make no mistake that we remain in a technical bear market and would need to see the S&P 500 clear 4300 for that to change. I for one will be glad to see 2022 end, but I am sure that 2023 will present significant challenges. A recession seems imminent to me, and it remains unclear whether we have discounted its severity. Markets are looking forward, and they will ultimately show us the way. 

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! 


January 17, 2024

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