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The Week in Review: Performance Updates from Cabana’s CEO – May 8, 2018

7 years ago

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Market insight and a highlight of Cabana’s year-to-date performance:

Cabana’s seven portfolios range from “Conservative” to “Aggressive” and include an income strategy and an “Accumulator” portfolio. Performance is as of market close on May 7, 2018 and is presented net of maximum advisory fees and commissions.

Cabana Portfolios were mixed for the week, consistent with both equity and bond markets. Energy and commodities are the only assets to have benefited from the rising rates. We currently have these assets to varying degrees in all Cabana Portfolios, but exposure at this point remains limited.

Bond yields hit resistance at 3.04%. This level in the ten-year bond represents highs we have not seen since 2011. As we pointed out last week, the meteoric rise to this level over the past three months is a major contributor to the volatility we have seen in equity markets, as well as the pullback in interest/dividend-paying, safe-haven assets like bonds, real estate and blue chip stocks. Not only does rising interest rates act as a headwind, but so does the corresponding rise in the U.S. dollar. Large multinational corporations are at a competitive disadvantage, trying to compete in foreign markets when we have a relatively strong dollar. I was especially concerned that rates could move through 3.04% and into territory whereby costs might overwhelm corporate earnings. In such a case, a significant selloff (or recession) could be a very real possibility. That has not yet occurred. While future earnings expectations are being moderated by analysts, present earnings have remained exceptional. In addition, economic fundamentals are as strong as they have been in this century. The million-dollar question is whether we have seen the best of it – and are destined to drop off from here. We must remember that there is an economic and technical (or price) top in every bull market before the inevitable downturn. The key will be if earnings growth starts to level off and then fall. This hasn’t happened yet, but all the stars are aligning. To me, this is starting to feel a lot like the eighth or ninth inning. Markets seem to concur as we continue to churn between the 50- and 200-day moving average. The good news is the 200-day has held three times since the February drop. The bad news is that if we break out and rally back to the January highs, it may be the last rally we see for a while. We continue to avoid investing based on hunches or speculation and take it one day at a time. We remain cautiously bullish.

Year-to-date net-of-fees performance:

CONSERVATIVE: -0.11%

MODERATE: -0.66%

BALANCED: -0.63%

GROWTH: -0.38%

AGGRESSIVE: -0.52%

ACCUMULATOR: -0.05%

ALPHA INCOME: -1.67%

Performance is presented net of the maximum advisory fees and commissions (2%). Numbers indicated with (+) for positive return and (-) for negative return.

-G. Chadd Mason, CEO

 

Disclaimers:
 

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All performance returns are presented net-of-fees and include the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Benchmark comparisons are presented gross-of-fees.

Past performance may not be indicative of future returns. No current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client.

Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories typically do not show the impact of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an advisory fee, which may decrease historical performance results. There can be no assurances that a strategy will match or exceed its benchmark.

Some performance returns do not represent actual trading using client assets but were achieved through retroactive application of a model designed with the benefit of hindsight. Model returns have inherent limitations. Specifically, these returns do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact of material economic and market factors on the adviser’s decision-making if the adviser had actually managed the client’s money during this time frame.

Different types of investments involve higher and lower levels of risk. There is no guarantee that a specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for an investor’s portfolio. There are no assurances that a portfolio will match or exceed any particular benchmark.

Cabana LLC manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results may vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability within the Cabana Model.

Disclaimers

January 17, 2024

This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This material may only be distributed in its original format and may not be altered or reproduced without the prior written consent of Cabana. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.  

“CARA” is Cabana’s Cyclical Asset Reallocation Algorithm. Scenes assigned as per the judgment of The Cabana Group. Scene names and number of scenes have changed over time in an effort to obtain efficiencies and provide clarity of investment objective. 

This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.  

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV Part 2A or Form CRS. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investment strategies have different degrees of risk and the corresponding potential for profit or loss. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. “Target Drawdown” is merely a descriptive term used to describe the general strategy and objective of the portfolio, it is not a guarantee, nor should it be construed to suggest safety or protection from loss. There is no guarantee that portfolio performance will remain consistent with the targeted drawdown parameter. While risk tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account and there is no guarantee that Cabana’s strategies will be suitable for any investor. Investors and advisors should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. It is the responsibility of investment advisors to determine what is suitable for their clients. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors will vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.  

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All recommendations made in the prior 12 months are available upon request. Cabana’s allocation history is available here. For additional information regarding our services, including performance disclosures and award methodology, please visit https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/. 

Commonly used index/benchmark definitions:  

All indices and categories are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index or category. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Benchmark indices will likely materially differ from Cabana’s portfolio strategies. Detailed information as to how the returns are calculated can be obtained online from the following link: https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/performance-reporting-methodology/. 

Morningstar’s Moderate Target Risk index  follows a moderate equity risk preference and is based on well-established asset allocation methodology from Ibbotson Associates, a Morningstar company.  

Morningstar’s Tactical Allocation category includes portfolios that seek to provide capital appreciation and income by actively shifting allocations across investments. These portfolios have material shifts across equity regions, and bond sectors on a frequent basis. 

The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization weighted stock market index of 500 widely held large-cap stocks often used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market.  

The Russell 2000 and 3000 indices are market-capitalization weighted stock market indices that include, respectively, 2000 and 3000 of the most widely-held stocks and are often used as proxies for the U.S. stock market. 

The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-weight capitalization index that covers more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. What is the Nasdaq Composite, and What Companies are in It? | Nasdaq