Go Back

A Vaccine… The Ray of Hope We Needed: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – Dec. 1, 2020

4 years ago

  • Share this:

We just closed out an epic monthly rally in the broad U.S. equity indices. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all up more than 10% for the month despite yesterday’s pullback. On November 15, stocks broke out of a two-month extremely volatile trading range. The previous high reached in early September by the S&P 500 has since been tested by a pullback on November 21 and we are again trading above 3800. If this were even close to an ordinary year, one would think that we are due for a serious pullback in December given how quickly and how far stocks have bounced. This is not an ordinary year. In fact, it is unlike anything we have ever seen.

The drop we saw in early spring (and the rally afterward) topped even the Great Depression in terms of speed and percentage decline from all-time highs. Earnings of all but a few select technology companies fell off a cliff and remain down in a big way year-over-year. Unemployment remains high and businesses are hurting all over the country. Let’s not forget COVID-19, which is still ravaging our communities and healthcare system. Hundreds of thousands of people are becoming infected and thousands are dying every day.

So, how can the stock market suddenly take off on one of its greatest monthly runs ever? The answer lies in the fact that the “market” and the collective wisdom of millions of investors is looking ahead. We have hope that this nightmare may soon be over. A vaccine is here – not just one, but several. It is not over yet and the worst may not be behind us, but there is a crack of daylight in the distance. It is this small ray of hope that burst into the dark room of coronavirus on November 15 when Pfizer announced the results of its third stage trial. Early that morning, stocks were up six or seven percent as euphoria overcame sensibility. Things eventually settled back down, but the door had been kicked open. Money flowed out of those few big tech stocks and into the beaten down names of the everyday old word economy. In the days since, that rotation has continued in fits and starts. It is this rotation that reflects the sheer frustration and pent up demand of people worldwide that makes me think stocks just might continue to go higher. We are tired, angry, and ready to live again. I never underestimate the ingenuity of human beings to find a way forward under any conditions. All we need is a chance, a sliver of light in the darkness. In November we got it.

Download a PDF of this commentary at the following link:

Cabana-Weekly-Market-Commentary-December-1-2020Download
Disclaimers

January 17, 2024

This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This material may only be distributed in its original format and may not be altered or reproduced without the prior written consent of Cabana. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.  

“CARA” is Cabana’s Cyclical Asset Reallocation Algorithm. Scenes assigned as per the judgment of The Cabana Group. Scene names and number of scenes have changed over time in an effort to obtain efficiencies and provide clarity of investment objective. 

This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.  

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV Part 2A or Form CRS. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investment strategies have different degrees of risk and the corresponding potential for profit or loss. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. “Target Drawdown” is merely a descriptive term used to describe the general strategy and objective of the portfolio, it is not a guarantee, nor should it be construed to suggest safety or protection from loss. There is no guarantee that portfolio performance will remain consistent with the targeted drawdown parameter. While risk tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account and there is no guarantee that Cabana’s strategies will be suitable for any investor. Investors and advisors should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. It is the responsibility of investment advisors to determine what is suitable for their clients. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors will vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.  

Cabana claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a trademark of the CFA Institute. The CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. To receive a GIPS Report and/or a firm’s list of composite/pooled fund descriptions please email your request to info@thecabanagroup.com.

All recommendations made in the prior 12 months are available upon request. Cabana’s allocation history is available here. For additional information regarding our services, including performance disclosures and award methodology, please visit https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/. 

Commonly used index/benchmark definitions:  

All indices and categories are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index or category. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Benchmark indices will likely materially differ from Cabana’s portfolio strategies. Detailed information as to how the returns are calculated can be obtained online from the following link: https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/performance-reporting-methodology/. 

Morningstar’s Moderate Target Risk index  follows a moderate equity risk preference and is based on well-established asset allocation methodology from Ibbotson Associates, a Morningstar company.  

Morningstar’s Tactical Allocation category includes portfolios that seek to provide capital appreciation and income by actively shifting allocations across investments. These portfolios have material shifts across equity regions, and bond sectors on a frequent basis. 

The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization weighted stock market index of 500 widely held large-cap stocks often used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market.  

The Russell 2000 and 3000 indices are market-capitalization weighted stock market indices that include, respectively, 2000 and 3000 of the most widely-held stocks and are often used as proxies for the U.S. stock market. 

The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-weight capitalization index that covers more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. What is the Nasdaq Composite, and What Companies are in It? | Nasdaq