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Investors Shift Attention to Earnings: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – April 19, 2021

4 years ago

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Over the past week, equity markets moved higher, and interest rates continued to moderate. First quarter earnings will now be a large focus for investors in the next days and weeks. Banks kicked things off last Wednesday and reported big numbers. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo all beat estimates. As mentioned previously, FactSet is projecting earnings growth of 24.5% overall for Q1 2021. If that comes to pass it would be the best quarter for earnings since Q3 of 2018.

Let us remember a few key concepts here. The first is that earnings growth is a big part of what drives equity prices, and indirectly drives allocation of capital to everything else. Simply put, earnings growth is key to the foundation of the all-consuming desire to chase return relative to risk. The second thing to remember is that equity markets (and bond markets) are forward looking. The earnings we are seeing now were previewed way back in the fall of last year. At that time, we saw outperformance of the equal weight S&P 500 compared to the market cap weighted index, rising bond yields, and the later rotation out of technology into other sectors of the economy. These were all clues that we looked for and discussed six months ago. (Some examples of this can be found in our commentaries from August 31, October 5 and November 23.) The change in political administration, and the prospect of additional stimulus was just icing on the cake. All of these things and more (like a Covid vaccine) resulted in the huge rally in stock and bond yields that started on November 1, 2020. Looking back six months, this new bull market seems obvious. It was all right in front of us. 

So, with this refresher in mind, the question becomes, how much of this rally is already priced into the cake? It’s funny how that one question is always the question. It is the question whether markets are moving up or down. It is what makes investing an art as well as a science.

Right now, signs point to a growing cake and the possibility of more earnings growth ahead. There is no sure thing in this world, and anything is possible, but for today, equity prices appear poised to move higher. It surely will not be a straight line up – it never is. There will be pullbacks and roadblocks along the way. Fear not, as that is how it works… and work it is.

Disclaimers

January 17, 2024

This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This material may only be distributed in its original format and may not be altered or reproduced without the prior written consent of Cabana. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.  

“CARA” is Cabana’s Cyclical Asset Reallocation Algorithm. Scenes assigned as per the judgment of The Cabana Group. Scene names and number of scenes have changed over time in an effort to obtain efficiencies and provide clarity of investment objective. 

This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.  

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV Part 2A or Form CRS. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investment strategies have different degrees of risk and the corresponding potential for profit or loss. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. “Target Drawdown” is merely a descriptive term used to describe the general strategy and objective of the portfolio, it is not a guarantee, nor should it be construed to suggest safety or protection from loss. There is no guarantee that portfolio performance will remain consistent with the targeted drawdown parameter. While risk tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account and there is no guarantee that Cabana’s strategies will be suitable for any investor. Investors and advisors should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. It is the responsibility of investment advisors to determine what is suitable for their clients. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors will vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.  

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Commonly used index/benchmark definitions:  

All indices and categories are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index or category. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Benchmark indices will likely materially differ from Cabana’s portfolio strategies. Detailed information as to how the returns are calculated can be obtained online from the following link: https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/performance-reporting-methodology/. 

Morningstar’s Moderate Target Risk index  follows a moderate equity risk preference and is based on well-established asset allocation methodology from Ibbotson Associates, a Morningstar company.  

Morningstar’s Tactical Allocation category includes portfolios that seek to provide capital appreciation and income by actively shifting allocations across investments. These portfolios have material shifts across equity regions, and bond sectors on a frequent basis. 

The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization weighted stock market index of 500 widely held large-cap stocks often used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market.  

The Russell 2000 and 3000 indices are market-capitalization weighted stock market indices that include, respectively, 2000 and 3000 of the most widely-held stocks and are often used as proxies for the U.S. stock market. 

The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-weight capitalization index that covers more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. What is the Nasdaq Composite, and What Companies are in It? | Nasdaq