Markets Hit New Highs in the Wake of Last Week’s Fed Remarks: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – July 15, 2019

2 years ago

  • Share this:

Chairman Powell walked the line between giving too much and too little in the way of monetary accommodation during prepared remarks to Congress last week. Markets have responded positively and are at all-time highs. We will see if we get follow through after the Fed meeting later in the month and a decision on a cut in interest rates.

The Dow industrials index has broken out and is outperforming the S&P 500 after lagging throughout the first part of 2019. The industrial sector has experienced earnings weakness related to the trade war with China. I believe it is a positive sign that we are seeing that part of the overall market turn around. We are also seeing strength in the transportation sector and the small cap index. I stated several weeks ago that if I had one wish it would be for transportation and the riskier small cap indices to catch up to the S&P 500. While they haven’t quite caught up, they are doing well. Dow theorists would love to see the transportation reach new highs parallel to the industrials. According to Dow theory, when the industrials and transports reach new highs together, it is evidence of a new bull market.

Foreign markets continue to lag. Yesterday China reported the slowest growth since the 1990s. The trade issues are clearly adding to a weakening economy overall. The fact is that the U.S. remains the strongest economy in the world by some distance. We would benefit from some strength in the economies of our trading partners, including China. I remain hopeful that a trade resolution can be reached with China one way or the other. We received word last week that trade talks have resumed, so let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Finally, the yield curve is steepening, which is helpful to banks and other financial stocks. It is generally a good thing for the overall market when banks are making money.

Key terms:

The Dow theory is a theory that says the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages (industrial or transportation) advances above a previous important high and is accompanied or followed by a similar advance in the other average. For example, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbs to an intermediate high, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is expected to follow suit within a reasonable period of time. (www.investopedia.com)

A PDF of this week’s commentary is available at the following link:

Disclaimers:
 

This material is prepared by Cabana, LLC(d/b/a “Cabana Asset Management” & “Cabana Retirement Solutions”) and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.

This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV, Part 2. A copy of which is available upon request or online at https://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/.

Cabana did not pay a fee to participate in the ranking and survey and is not affiliated with Financial Advisor Magazine. RIAs were ranked based on percentage growth in year-end 2017 AUM over year-end 2016 AUM with a minimum AUM of $250 million, assets per client, and growth in percentage assets per client. Visit www.fa-mag.com information regarding the ranking.

Disclaimers

February 23, 2021

This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This material may only be distributed in its original format and may not be altered or reproduced without the prior written consent of CabanaThe opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.  

This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.  

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV, Part 2. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investment strategies have different degrees of risk and the corresponding potential for profit or loss. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. “Target Drawdown” is merely a descriptive term used to describe the general strategy and objective of the portfolio, it is not a guarantee, nor should it be construed to suggest safety or protection from loss. There is no guarantee that portfolio performance will remain consistent with the targeted drawdown parameter. While risk tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account and there is no guarantee that Cabana’s strategies will be suitable for any investor. Investors and advisors should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. It is the responsibility of investment advisors to determine what is suitable for their clients. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors will vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.  

Cabana claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a trademark of the CFA Institute. The CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. To receive a GIPS Report and/or a firm’s list of composite/pooled fund descriptions please email your request to info@thecabanagroup.com.

The COVID-19 health epidemic has had substantial global economic impact on financial markets. As of March of 2020, restrictions to travel and business spanning the economy for activities not deemed essential have been imposed throughout the United States. These restrictions have caused unprecedented volatility and uncertainty in capital markets and have negatively impacted the economy. It is unknown how severe the impact to the economy and capital markets will be if the epidemic persists for an extended period of time. The epidemic may have a material adverse impact on Cabana’s investment advisory business including, but not limited to, the performance of our portfolio strategies.  

For additional information regarding our services, including performance disclosures and award methodology, please visit https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/.