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The Stock Market Continues to Battle Through Resistance: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – February 12, 2023

1 year ago

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The stock market continues to battle through resistance and hold gains realized since the beginning of the year. This is no small feat in my opinion given all that investors are dealing with. Questions abound at every turn and there are as many seemingly reasonable opinions as there are talking heads.  

Are we in a recession? Are we going to have a recession? Will inflation continue to fall? Will the Fed pause or reverse its rate hike campaign? Have markets discounted the expected drop in earnings that is on the horizon? Was the October low the bottom of this bear market or do we have lower to go? Are we out of the bear market and at the precipice of a new bull cycle?  

It just goes on and on and the net result is elevated volatility. The broad stock indices are experiencing swings of 1-2% on a daily basis. While this has made “investing” feel a lot more like “trading”, the fact remains that through it all stocks have made significant technical progress.  

I am a big believer in the collective wisdom of markets and that charts don’t lie. The S&P 500 is now back above its 50- and 200-day moving averages and the 50-day is above the 200-day as evidenced by the golden cross we pointed out last week. Not to mention, it is holding… at least for now. In my view, we needed to clear 4000 (SPX) and then 4100 for a trend change to be possible. We have done just that coincident with the above-mentioned technical improvements. Say what you want but risk assets are moving up. I do not rule anything out given the remarkably difficult year we have just had, and another reversal lower may occur but for now things look better.  

As of this writing, we are seeing some consolidation and a retest of the breakout at 4100 leading up to this Tuesday’s CPI report. That alone may pull the covers back on a lot of the noise in both directions. A lower January inflation number would support the notion that the trend lower in prices remains intact, and that would be a very good thing. A higher number…….not so good. 

At Cabana, CARA signaled a reallocation last week and we are now in our Transitional Bullish Scene. We remain outside of target drawdown so the Safety Valve is in effect should markets deteriorate. 

Disclaimers

January 17, 2024

This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This material may only be distributed in its original format and may not be altered or reproduced without the prior written consent of Cabana. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.  

“CARA” is Cabana’s Cyclical Asset Reallocation Algorithm. Scenes assigned as per the judgment of The Cabana Group. Scene names and number of scenes have changed over time in an effort to obtain efficiencies and provide clarity of investment objective. 

This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.  

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV Part 2A or Form CRS. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investment strategies have different degrees of risk and the corresponding potential for profit or loss. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. “Target Drawdown” is merely a descriptive term used to describe the general strategy and objective of the portfolio, it is not a guarantee, nor should it be construed to suggest safety or protection from loss. There is no guarantee that portfolio performance will remain consistent with the targeted drawdown parameter. While risk tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account and there is no guarantee that Cabana’s strategies will be suitable for any investor. Investors and advisors should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. It is the responsibility of investment advisors to determine what is suitable for their clients. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors will vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.  

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Commonly used index/benchmark definitions:  

All indices and categories are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index or category. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Benchmark indices will likely materially differ from Cabana’s portfolio strategies. Detailed information as to how the returns are calculated can be obtained online from the following link: https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/performance-reporting-methodology/. 

Morningstar’s Moderate Target Risk index  follows a moderate equity risk preference and is based on well-established asset allocation methodology from Ibbotson Associates, a Morningstar company.  

Morningstar’s Tactical Allocation category includes portfolios that seek to provide capital appreciation and income by actively shifting allocations across investments. These portfolios have material shifts across equity regions, and bond sectors on a frequent basis. 

The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization weighted stock market index of 500 widely held large-cap stocks often used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market.  

The Russell 2000 and 3000 indices are market-capitalization weighted stock market indices that include, respectively, 2000 and 3000 of the most widely-held stocks and are often used as proxies for the U.S. stock market. 

The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-weight capitalization index that covers more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. What is the Nasdaq Composite, and What Companies are in It? | Nasdaq