Go Back

To Cut Rates or Not to Cut Rates, That is This Week’s Question: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – July 8, 2019

5 years ago

  • Share this:

On behalf of everyone at Cabana, I hope all our clients and advisor partners had a wonderful holiday weekend with family and friends. The 4th of July is my personal favorite holiday. Not only is it a great excuse to get outside, but it is a stress-free day spent celebrating our country and having some fun with the people we love.

Now, on to the markets. The second half of the year is off to a rocky start. Much of the first half’s gains were due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve is coming to the rescue with interest rate cuts this month. As recently as two weeks ago, the bond market was pricing in the possibility of a 50-basis-point cut at the July meeting. Well, that expectation was hit squarely in the face with a very strong jobs report on Friday. As I mentioned in a commentary several weeks ago, record-low unemployment goes a long way in staving off a recession. If people have jobs, they can continue to live and plan, which translates to buying things. Buying things results in demand-side growth in everything from houses to tennis shoes. In fact, the relationship between employment and the underlying economy is so strong that it is a fundamental tenet of the Federal Reserve policy. In the present circumstance, it is hard to argue that we need much stimulus from our Central Bank in the form of rate cuts. This is a classic case of good news is really bad news. Markets are crazy like that. On Friday, we saw steep drops across the board. Stocks fell and interest rates rose, taking bonds and fixed income assets down as well. The selling in stocks continues today, although we are still right around all-time highs in the S&P 500.

In my view, the Federal Reserve has gotten itself caught on the horns of a dilemma. If it doesn’t cut rates, the markets are likely to take a quick 5-10% drop as investors reprice assets. If it does cut rates, that could represent that things are worse than we really know and, just as importantly, the Fed has lost the ability to remain independent and is catering to the market’s desires (and President Trump’s). Over the short-term, not cutting rates will probably create the most volatility. Over the long-term, good news is good news, and the Federal Reserve should stick to its job. My best guess is that rates are cut 25 basis points and the Federal Reserve provides a statement that a small cut is all that is currently needed.

Chairman Powell will give testimony to Congress beginning on Wednesday, and you can bet he is finding a way to communicate his way through this issue in advance of the July Fed meeting. Stay tuned.

Download a PDF of this week’s market commentary at the following link:

Cabana-Weekly-Market-Commentary-July-8-2019_Blog-Post-and-SocialDownload
Disclaimers

January 17, 2024

This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This material may only be distributed in its original format and may not be altered or reproduced without the prior written consent of Cabana. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.  

“CARA” is Cabana’s Cyclical Asset Reallocation Algorithm. Scenes assigned as per the judgment of The Cabana Group. Scene names and number of scenes have changed over time in an effort to obtain efficiencies and provide clarity of investment objective. 

This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.  

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV Part 2A or Form CRS. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investment strategies have different degrees of risk and the corresponding potential for profit or loss. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. “Target Drawdown” is merely a descriptive term used to describe the general strategy and objective of the portfolio, it is not a guarantee, nor should it be construed to suggest safety or protection from loss. There is no guarantee that portfolio performance will remain consistent with the targeted drawdown parameter. While risk tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account and there is no guarantee that Cabana’s strategies will be suitable for any investor. Investors and advisors should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. It is the responsibility of investment advisors to determine what is suitable for their clients. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors will vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.  

Cabana claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a trademark of the CFA Institute. The CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. To receive a GIPS Report and/or a firm’s list of composite/pooled fund descriptions please email your request to info@thecabanagroup.com.

All recommendations made in the prior 12 months are available upon request. Cabana’s allocation history is available here. For additional information regarding our services, including performance disclosures and award methodology, please visit https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/. 

Commonly used index/benchmark definitions:  

All indices and categories are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index or category. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Benchmark indices will likely materially differ from Cabana’s portfolio strategies. Detailed information as to how the returns are calculated can be obtained online from the following link: https://thecabanagroup.com/disclaimers/performance-reporting-methodology/. 

Morningstar’s Moderate Target Risk index  follows a moderate equity risk preference and is based on well-established asset allocation methodology from Ibbotson Associates, a Morningstar company.  

Morningstar’s Tactical Allocation category includes portfolios that seek to provide capital appreciation and income by actively shifting allocations across investments. These portfolios have material shifts across equity regions, and bond sectors on a frequent basis. 

The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization weighted stock market index of 500 widely held large-cap stocks often used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market.  

The Russell 2000 and 3000 indices are market-capitalization weighted stock market indices that include, respectively, 2000 and 3000 of the most widely-held stocks and are often used as proxies for the U.S. stock market. 

The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-weight capitalization index that covers more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. What is the Nasdaq Composite, and What Companies are in It? | Nasdaq