Last week, August CPI (inflation) data came in above estimates, which put additional upward pressure on interest rates and provided support for the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position on continuing its rate hiking cycle for the remainder of the year. The bond market is now forecasting the fed funds rate to be north of 4% in… Read the full article.
Over the past several weeks we have discussed the “stock” market’s failure to re-claim the broad indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow) 200-day moving averages and the implications of that. In sum, the reversal from that level in mid-August keeps the bear market downtrend intact. Moreover, stocks have now fallen below their 50-day moving average, which… Read the full article.
Any hope of a new bull market in equities appears to now be firmly quashed with the Federal Reserve’s commitment to continue aggressively raising interest rates in hopes of conquering inflation. Chairman Powell on Friday was unequivocal in his speech. It was short and sweet. Rates will continue to rise until the Fed is confident… Read the full article.
I would like to spend a few minutes today thanking the entire Cabana team as well as our advisor partners who visited Dallas last week from all over the country for our first ever Cabana Advisor Workshop. What a great week! We discussed the unique economic conditions we’ve seen this year, how it has impacted… Read the full article.
We have discussed several times in our commentaries over the past month that technical market conditions were improving, and the chances of a sustained rally appeared possible, if not likely. During the past two weeks we have seen buyers step up each time the market has begun to sell off. This is a marked change from… Read the full article.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and announced another 75 basis point hike to the overnight federal funds rate. This was the consensus expectation and markets responded positively to the initial news. Chairman Powell gave a usual press conference afterward and provided what I believe to be the biggest impetus to move this market… Read the full article.
Apologies for the pause in commentary over the past week. I have been on vacation in Colorado with my family. We will pick up our weekly commentary as usual next week. Since my last remarks, we got the June CPI (inflation) numbers and they came in hotter than expected. We are now seeing inflation… Read the full article.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June meeting, which concluded with the members raising the Fed Funds Rate 75 basis points. This was the largest increase at a meeting since 1994. Investors want to know more details about the Fed’s thinking as we approach the July meeting in a couple of weeks…. Read the full article.
Last week’s rally appears to have failed and we are now headed back toward recent lows on all the major indices. We discussed several days ago the typical two steps, one step process in both bull and bear markets, and what we are seeing is more of the same two steps down followed by one… Read the full article.
My apologies to all for our commentary being tardy this week. We have had several advisor webinars to present and have been focused on that. Cyclical bull markets typically last longer than bear markets and they are characterized by the old saying of two steps forward and one step back. Another common characteristic is that… Read the full article.
Last week we provided what I believe is some very important information on the basics of risk management and how to view investing from the perspective of managing through corrections and real deal bear markets. We provided an article written by a non-affiliated ETF manager, which I feel does a good job of simplifying what… Read the full article.
As all our advisor partners and clients know, we spend some time each week working to explain investing and the markets in general, as well as what we do at Cabana. The goal is to provide some meaningful information that helps make the process easier and gives insight into what we are trying to accomplish…. Read the full article.
Last week we talked about the equity market trying to find a bottom after the brutal last five months. After a whipsaw that began in the middle of March with a more than 10% move up, the S&P 500 reversed and dropped for eight straight weeks, culminating in a bear-market-defining low of 20% down from January highs. We are… Read the full article.
Equity markets have begun searching for a bottom in hopes that a recession is not on the horizon. The thinking is that the interest rate changes are now priced in and the resulting 20% haircut in the S&P 500 and 30% in the Nasdaq has pulled forward P/E ratios back down to historic norms. This… Read the full article.
Last week, we discussed the ongoing market volatility and reiterated just how difficult this year has been for all types of investors. The unabated price declines this year in traditional “safe assets” like U.S. treasuries and corporate bonds is really breathtaking. The coincident selloff in stocks makes this nothing short of a generationally difficult environment…. Read the full article.
Equity and bond markets continue to swing wildly, with the ultimate outcome thus far this year ending to the downside. I just read that the S&P 500 is experiencing the worst start to an overall negative year since 1962. Add to that a historic bear market in bonds going on at the same time and you have… Read the full article.
I spend a fair portion of time working and talking with my advisor partners about the markets, about Cabana’s methodology, and how we are communicating with clients. As you might suspect, we spend more time discussing these things when markets become difficult, and clients see portfolios drop in value as assets get repriced throughout the… Read the full article.
I’d like to start by apologizing for our lack of commentary last week – especially considering the current market environment. Our team hosted our regular advisor webinar on Monday and traveled to a conference in Las Vegas in the later part of the week with several of our advisor partners to discuss the market and… Read the full article.
Overall, market conditions remain very difficult. We are mired in a storm of runaway inflation and concurrent historic rise in interest rates, a simultaneous selloff in stocks and bonds, geopolitical uncertainty putting additional upward pressure on interest rates and downward pressure on global growth, and finally a rapid transition from extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy to… Read the full article.
The inflation and interest rate story remains front and center on the minds of investors. The big question to me is how much pain has already been wrung out of the bond and fixed income markets. Fixed income investors just suffered their worst quarter in 40 years. As expectations increase for interest rates to rise… Read the full article.