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Last week we discussed the apparent failure of the S&P 500 (SPX) to hold its’ early February breakout above resistance at 4100. The reversal to lower prices came as investors realized that inflation remains an ongoing problem and rates would likely need to rise further (and perhaps faster) than expected. This same reality continues to… Read the full article.
Stocks moved lower in February as interest rates rose. This is a pattern that has been in place for over a year now – stocks fall when rates rise and vice versa. Bond yields peaked in October, leading to a rally in stocks that continued (albeit rocky) through the end of January. Since then, yields have jumped from 3.39%… Read the full article.
Over the last ten days we have seen two hot inflation data points come in. The January CPI number came in above estimates and this was followed by a higher-than-expected PPI number at the end of last week. All of this comes on the back of exceptionally strong labor market reports. It appears investors are… Read the full article.
The stock market continues to battle through resistance and hold gains realized since the beginning of the year. This is no small feat in my opinion given all that investors are dealing with. Questions abound at every turn and there are as many seemingly reasonable opinions as there are talking heads. Are we in a… Read the full article.
Last week we took a look at some potentially important positive technical changes in the broad U.S. stock market. We used the S&P 500 as a proxy and will do the same today. We also noted that the January rally in stocks was in anticipation of the Fed meeting, which concluded yesterday. I felt like… Read the full article.
Equity markets have continued to make technical progress over the past week. We find ourselves at a juncture where numerous indicators have converged. I have pulled a chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) from StockCharts.com and included it below for reference. Technical analysis is always a bit subjective, so take what I see with… Read the full article.
Stocks have now booked two straight weeks of gains to start 2023. This is a positive sign to me after what was a dismal 2022. Importantly, the benchmark S&P 500 is now back above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This makes the fourth time since last spring that we have seen an… Read the full article.
The new year has brought more of the same volatility as investors struggle to balance the odds of a recession this year with continued economic resilience. The Federal Reserve is still providing a hawkish backdrop at every opportunity. They have made it abundantly clear that short-term interest rates will need to move above 5% (and… Read the full article.
This last commentary of 2022 comes with gratitude. I am grateful for my partners around the country, my clients and the amazing people inside Cabana – all of whom have fought through the historically difficult year we have just experienced. I won’t belabor the myriad issues that have made the past year unique for investors…. Read the full article.
Despite getting a good CPI report Tuesday and a big initial rally, the broad stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) gave up the majority of gains and the S&P 500 closed below it’s 200-day moving average. Yesterday, we got the expected 50 basis point increase in the Fed fund’s rate. The rate is… Read the full article.
It appears to me that investors may have once again sold the most recent rally attempt in stocks, which began in the middle of October. Despite surviving a test of support at the 3900 level two weeks ago, clearing 4000 (SPY) and favorable seasonality, the major equity indices all immediately dropped as soon as the S&P… Read the full article.
The major stock indices managed to grind out a gain in the holiday-shortened week. This followed two weeks of digesting gains and testing prior support after the major move up on November 10. I previously suggested that this process was necessary, and we needed to see 3900 hold on the S&P 500 for a year-end… Read the full article.
As we head into the holiday season, let’s start this commentary by acknowledging what matters most – our friends and family. All our successes and failures in life are meaningless without the people who are there to share them. The older I get, the more this hits home. Today, I want to say a special… Read the full article.
I would like to start by acknowledging and thanking all our professional partners who came to Dallas last week for our Q4 Cabana Advisor Workshop. I cannot tell you how grateful I am to have partners who I believe genuinely care about their clients and the business of investing. This was our second time hosting… Read the full article.
Markets of all types continue to experience volatility around each data point that is reported. The Federal Reserve hiked rates another 75 basis points last week and Chairman Powell reiterated that there was more to come. Investors appear to have given up on a halt to rising rates and are hoping for a simple slowdown…. Read the full article.
Stocks are attempting another comeback after bouncing off support at the 3600 level (S&P 500) about 10 days ago. That level has now been held on four different occasions since June. As of this writing, the Dow Jones has cleared its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 is fighting to do the same. The… Read the full article.
In an environment like the one we are in today I think it is important to revisit the difference between trading and investing. It is very easy to get caught up in the wild gyrations of stocks and confuse the daily (and weekly) swings as “investing”. In my opinion, this is actually just noise caused… Read the full article.
Last week, we discussed the probability of a relief rally in stocks. At that time, the major equity indices were deeply oversold, as was the bond market. For reference, stocks were down between 8% and 10% during September, depending on the index. This followed a 4% or more loss in August. Bond yields marched higher as… Read the full article.
One week ago, we suggested that the pending Fed announcement on interest rates would be the impetus for a quick retest of the market’s 2022 lows, which occurred during the third week of June. Markets have consistently deteriorated since the end of August in the face of continued inflation and a uniquely hawkish Federal Reserve…. Read the full article.
Last week, August CPI (inflation) data came in above estimates, which put additional upward pressure on interest rates and provided support for the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position on continuing its rate hiking cycle for the remainder of the year. The bond market is now forecasting the fed funds rate to be north of 4% in… Read the full article.
