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Investors got the March CPI numbers yesterday (Wednesday) morning and unfortunately, they came in above expectations pretty much across the board. The rising inflation we saw in the January and February data appears to be a trend – and a trend in the wrong direction. Prices for rent, insurance and other swaths of the economy… Read the full article.
Last Friday we got the PCE inflation report, and it was “in line” with expectations. This followed two reports (CPI and PPI) earlier in the month that were hotter than expected. I was worried that another similar report would be the catalyst for higher bond yields and a correction in stocks. The reason is two-fold…. Read the full article.
Stocks are closing the first quarter of 2024 on solid footing. Tech has continued to outperform, and high beta sectors have beaten low beta sectors. The last couple of weeks have seen some rotation, which may reflect that tech has gotten ahead of itself and there is some value (and less risk) in other places. … Read the full article.
We got February inflation data last week in the form of the CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday. Both reports came in above expectations and evidence the fact that inflation is still hanging around and we are still some distance away from the Federal Reserve’s (the “Fed”) stated target of 2%. Bonds immediately… Read the full article.
Late last week, we got the much-anticipated PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) report. This is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator. After two fairly hot inflation reports in February, this was important to see whether the downward trend in inflation remains in place. The market was looking for a .3% month-over-month increase and 2.4% twelve-month increase… Read the full article.
The past week we have seen two separate inflation measures (CPI and PPI) come in above expectations. This has increased upward pressure on interest rates while reducing chances the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) will cut rates anytime soon. The message from our Central Bank has been clear that rate cutting will not begin until it… Read the full article.
The market cap-weighted stock indices continue to march higher after a brief pullback in early January. This continues to be led by technology stocks, while most other sectors are underperforming. Bonds, real estate, utilities, dividend paying stocks and other interest rate sensitive assets remain under pressure as yields have bounced above 4% again. Chairman… Read the full article.
The new year has started off with a return to the patterns of 2023. Interest rates have jumped, on concerns that the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) will not cut interest rates as quickly as hoped. During the fourth quarter of last year, the bond market priced in a nearly 70% chance of a March rate… Read the full article.
The stock market continues to try and digest the outsized gains we saw in November and December. We’ve seen a whole lot of grinding nowhere since the new year began as investors evaluate whether we got ahead of ourselves with the assumption that interest rate cuts are imminent. The bond market is driving things as… Read the full article.
Happy New Year, everybody! Let’s make this one the best ever. I am going to focus on gratitude for all the amazing people in my life, not the least of which is my family who love me and support me unconditionally. I am blessed. I hope everyone can do a little bit of the same… Read the full article.
Stock and bond markets have managed to churn higher over the past week, despite increased volatility. We are still seeing much-needed catch-up in sectors such as financials, real estate and industrials. Small and mid-caps are outperforming the mega-cap tech darlings of the past year. I pointed out earlier this week that I believe this is… Read the full article.
Stocks and bonds have been able to hold and even continue the rally that began in November. This has been true across a variety of sectors in the stock market as well as in fixed income of all duration. This is not just focused on big tech – and to me, that is the best… Read the full article.
The stock market finished off a big month on Thursday having recouped all of the losses seen since the end of July. As stated in our last commentary, this has coincided with falling interest rates and the hope that the economy is cooling (but not too much), and the Federal Reserve’s next move will be… Read the full article.
Stocks have continued the rally that began two weeks ago and as of Friday are near the July highs, having erased nearly all the losses seen during the August through October swoon. Part of the recent rally could be due to short covering and oversold conditions existing at the end of October. The rest can… Read the full article.
Each week we try and identify things in the economy (and world) that we believe are important and worth thinking about. Most of the time this is all related to investing and includes objective data. I hope these commentaries are helpful, or at least interesting, even if they are often provided through one person’s lens…. Read the full article.
The bounce we saw in stocks (albeit brief) has now faded and we are again testing important support at the 200-day moving average around 420 on the market cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY). The same can be said of the high-flying Nasdaq (QQQ). I have included charts of those indices below. As long as these… Read the full article.
Stocks spent last week bouncing from oversold conditions that resulted from the pullback that began in August. The market-leading Nasdaq and cap-weighted S&P 500 found support just above their 200-day moving averages and, importantly, for the S&P 500 just above the important 420 level (SPY). I have included a six-month chart below for reference. The… Read the full article.
Stocks and bonds continue to move in response to interest rates. Rising rates have resulted in falling stocks and bond prices for the past two months. The focus last week was on jobs data and whether the relative strength or weakness will move the Fed to raise rates again or end its inflation fighting campaign –… Read the full article.
The stock and bond markets continue to take it on the chin as bond yields climb higher and higher. It doesn’t help that we have a lot of domestic and international disfunction going on at the same time. So, has the bear market resumed and all these gains by big tech that have pushed indices… Read the full article.
Last week we talked about things being awfully quiet. Well, they aren’t now. Bond yields have exploded up through resistance at 4.3% on the all-important 10-Year Treasury bond. As of this writing midday Thursday, the yield is closing in on 4.5% and we are at levels not seen since 2007. Do you remember what happened… Read the full article.
