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The new year has brought more of the same volatility as investors struggle to balance the odds of a recession this year with continued economic resilience. The Federal Reserve is still providing a hawkish backdrop at every opportunity. They have made it abundantly clear that short-term interest rates will need to move above 5% (and… Read the full article.
This last commentary of 2022 comes with gratitude. I am grateful for my partners around the country, my clients and the amazing people inside Cabana – all of whom have fought through the historically difficult year we have just experienced. I won’t belabor the myriad issues that have made the past year unique for investors…. Read the full article.
Despite getting a good CPI report Tuesday and a big initial rally, the broad stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) gave up the majority of gains and the S&P 500 closed below it’s 200-day moving average. Yesterday, we got the expected 50 basis point increase in the Fed fund’s rate. The rate is… Read the full article.
It appears to me that investors may have once again sold the most recent rally attempt in stocks, which began in the middle of October. Despite surviving a test of support at the 3900 level two weeks ago, clearing 4000 (SPY) and favorable seasonality, the major equity indices all immediately dropped as soon as the S&P… Read the full article.
The major stock indices managed to grind out a gain in the holiday-shortened week. This followed two weeks of digesting gains and testing prior support after the major move up on November 10. I previously suggested that this process was necessary, and we needed to see 3900 hold on the S&P 500 for a year-end… Read the full article.
As we head into the holiday season, let’s start this commentary by acknowledging what matters most – our friends and family. All our successes and failures in life are meaningless without the people who are there to share them. The older I get, the more this hits home. Today, I want to say a special… Read the full article.
I would like to start by acknowledging and thanking all our professional partners who came to Dallas last week for our Q4 Cabana Advisor Workshop. I cannot tell you how grateful I am to have partners who I believe genuinely care about their clients and the business of investing. This was our second time hosting… Read the full article.
Markets of all types continue to experience volatility around each data point that is reported. The Federal Reserve hiked rates another 75 basis points last week and Chairman Powell reiterated that there was more to come. Investors appear to have given up on a halt to rising rates and are hoping for a simple slowdown…. Read the full article.
Stocks are attempting another comeback after bouncing off support at the 3600 level (S&P 500) about 10 days ago. That level has now been held on four different occasions since June. As of this writing, the Dow Jones has cleared its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 is fighting to do the same. The… Read the full article.
In an environment like the one we are in today I think it is important to revisit the difference between trading and investing. It is very easy to get caught up in the wild gyrations of stocks and confuse the daily (and weekly) swings as “investing”. In my opinion, this is actually just noise caused… Read the full article.
Last week, we discussed the probability of a relief rally in stocks. At that time, the major equity indices were deeply oversold, as was the bond market. For reference, stocks were down between 8% and 10% during September, depending on the index. This followed a 4% or more loss in August. Bond yields marched higher as… Read the full article.
One week ago, we suggested that the pending Fed announcement on interest rates would be the impetus for a quick retest of the market’s 2022 lows, which occurred during the third week of June. Markets have consistently deteriorated since the end of August in the face of continued inflation and a uniquely hawkish Federal Reserve…. Read the full article.
Last week, August CPI (inflation) data came in above estimates, which put additional upward pressure on interest rates and provided support for the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position on continuing its rate hiking cycle for the remainder of the year. The bond market is now forecasting the fed funds rate to be north of 4% in… Read the full article.
Over the past several weeks we have discussed the “stock” market’s failure to re-claim the broad indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow) 200-day moving averages and the implications of that. In sum, the reversal from that level in mid-August keeps the bear market downtrend intact. Moreover, stocks have now fallen below their 50-day moving average, which… Read the full article.
Any hope of a new bull market in equities appears to now be firmly quashed with the Federal Reserve’s commitment to continue aggressively raising interest rates in hopes of conquering inflation. Chairman Powell on Friday was unequivocal in his speech. It was short and sweet. Rates will continue to rise until the Fed is confident… Read the full article.
I would like to spend a few minutes today thanking the entire Cabana team as well as our advisor partners who visited Dallas last week from all over the country for our first ever Cabana Advisor Workshop. What a great week! We discussed the unique economic conditions we’ve seen this year, how it has impacted… Read the full article.
We have discussed several times in our commentaries over the past month that technical market conditions were improving, and the chances of a sustained rally appeared possible, if not likely. During the past two weeks we have seen buyers step up each time the market has begun to sell off. This is a marked change from… Read the full article.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and announced another 75 basis point hike to the overnight federal funds rate. This was the consensus expectation and markets responded positively to the initial news. Chairman Powell gave a usual press conference afterward and provided what I believe to be the biggest impetus to move this market… Read the full article.
Apologies for the pause in commentary over the past week. I have been on vacation in Colorado with my family. We will pick up our weekly commentary as usual next week. Since my last remarks, we got the June CPI (inflation) numbers and they came in hotter than expected. We are now seeing inflation… Read the full article.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June meeting, which concluded with the members raising the Fed Funds Rate 75 basis points. This was the largest increase at a meeting since 1994. Investors want to know more details about the Fed’s thinking as we approach the July meeting in a couple of weeks…. Read the full article.
