As all our advisor partners and clients know, we spend some time each week working to explain investing and the markets in general, as well as what we do at Cabana. The goal is to provide some meaningful information that helps make the process easier and gives insight into what we are trying to accomplish…. Read the full article.
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Last week we talked about the equity market trying to find a bottom after the brutal last five months. After a whipsaw that began in the middle of March with a more than 10% move up, the S&P 500 reversed and dropped for eight straight weeks, culminating in a bear-market-defining low of 20% down from January highs. We are… Read the full article.
To Avoid a Recession or Not… That is the Question: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – May 26, 2022
Equity markets have begun searching for a bottom in hopes that a recession is not on the horizon. The thinking is that the interest rate changes are now priced in and the resulting 20% haircut in the S&P 500 and 30% in the Nasdaq has pulled forward P/E ratios back down to historic norms. This… Read the full article.
This Year Has Clearly Been Tough for Most Investors, But What’s Next?: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – May 19, 2022
Last week, we discussed the ongoing market volatility and reiterated just how difficult this year has been for all types of investors. The unabated price declines this year in traditional “safe assets” like U.S. treasuries and corporate bonds is really breathtaking. The coincident selloff in stocks makes this nothing short of a generationally difficult environment…. Read the full article.
A Tough Equity Market Paired with a Historic Bear Market in Bonds Makes for a Uniquely Bad Year for Most Investors: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – May 11, 2022
Equity and bond markets continue to swing wildly, with the ultimate outcome thus far this year ending to the downside. I just read that the S&P 500 is experiencing the worst start to an overall negative year since 1962. Add to that a historic bear market in bonds going on at the same time and you have… Read the full article.
Investing Is Like Buying a House… Or is It? Maybe It Should Be: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – May 6, 2022
I spend a fair portion of time working and talking with my advisor partners about the markets, about Cabana’s methodology, and how we are communicating with clients. As you might suspect, we spend more time discussing these things when markets become difficult, and clients see portfolios drop in value as assets get repriced throughout the… Read the full article.
I’d like to start by apologizing for our lack of commentary last week – especially considering the current market environment. Our team hosted our regular advisor webinar on Monday and traveled to a conference in Las Vegas in the later part of the week with several of our advisor partners to discuss the market and… Read the full article.
A Closer Look at the Current Investment Climate (the Good and the Bad): Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – April 14, 2022
Overall, market conditions remain very difficult. We are mired in a storm of runaway inflation and concurrent historic rise in interest rates, a simultaneous selloff in stocks and bonds, geopolitical uncertainty putting additional upward pressure on interest rates and downward pressure on global growth, and finally a rapid transition from extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy to… Read the full article.
Inflation and Interest Rates Remain Front and Center: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – April 6, 2022
The inflation and interest rate story remains front and center on the minds of investors. The big question to me is how much pain has already been wrung out of the bond and fixed income markets. Fixed income investors just suffered their worst quarter in 40 years. As expectations increase for interest rates to rise… Read the full article.
The broad U.S. equity indices continue to recover from the rapid correction that began in January. We have seen two straight weeks of buyers coming back into the market. This has occurred despite short-term interest rates rising at a historic rate. The 10-year Treasury Bond has breached 2.5% and part of the yield curve has… Read the full article.
The Much-Anticipated March Federal Reserve Meeting and the Market’s Reaction: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – March 24, 2022
The much-anticipated March Federal Reserve meeting concluded last week, and Chairman Powell announced a 25 basis point increase in the Fed’s target funds rate. This was widely expected and is the first increase since 2018. More importantly, Chairman Powell said that the Board was prepared to aggressively address inflation pressure by continuing to raise rates… Read the full article.
Tomorrow’s Fed Announcement May be a Turning Point (For Better or Worse): Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – March 15, 2022
As atrocities continue in Ukraine, the world of finance will momentarily turn its attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve tomorrow. It is widely expected that the Fed will announce its long anticipated decision on raising interest rates in an effort to normalize monetary policy after years (actual years) of stimulus. It began with the financial… Read the full article.
We’ve Said it Before, and We’ll Say it Again… the Market is Merely a Reflection of Ourselves: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – March 8, 2022
War rages on in Ukraine with daily reminders to the rest of the world that war equals horror and death. In my life of more than 50 years, there have been a handful of occasions when it hit home just how real and bad war is. Most of the other times, lucky people like me… Read the full article.
Stock and Bond Markets Across the World are in a Heightened State of Volatility: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – March 1, 2022
I will start today’s commentary with a prayer for peace and an end to war. There are times when talking about the gyrations of the stock market seems trivial and almost impolite. Today is one of those times. As a husband, father, grandfather and citizen of this earth, I am afraid. I am afraid that… Read the full article.
Caught in an Economic and Political Crosscurrent: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – February 22, 2022
Difficult market conditions persist, with the Russia/Ukraine dispute front and center following Russia’s decision to “recognize the independence of” disputed territories in eastern Ukraine. As such, they moved incrementally towards a more significant armed conflict. The U.S. and European allies have responded with sanctions including Germany’s stopping the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia…. Read the full article.
Equity markets worldwide remain extremely volatile with swings of 1-2% daily. The benchmark S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq are still battling their respective 200-day moving averages. This important technical line between bull and bear conditions is being watched closely by institutional investors. The inability to close above that level is not a good sign… Read the full article.
Interest rates (particularly their rapid rise) remain front and center on investors’ minds. We are right in the middle of earnings season and the ongoing re-pricing of future earnings due to the forecasted rise in rates has made for a volatile and unpredictable stock market. What appears to be a strong fourth quarter report for… Read the full article.
I have to say, January could not end soon enough for me. As many of you know, we have been managing money professionally for a long time – and in all types of environments. Difficult market conditions are to be expected and are part of investing. To be successful over the long term, you must… Read the full article.
About 12 years ago, Cabana’s lead engineer David Covington and I were working on our original portfolio and were discussing why we felt like limiting big losses and protecting drawdown was so important to long-term success in investing. The first part is simple math. If you lose a lot in a bad market, you must… Read the full article.
The long weekend did not soothe bond or stock markets as evidenced by the continued sell-off yesterday. The correction in equities continues coincident with the ongoing drop in bond prices and jump in yields. I like to take things day by day and do not enjoy or value predictions as a rule, but it appears… Read the full article.