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Each week we try and identify things in the economy (and world) that we believe are important and worth thinking about. Most of the time this is all related to investing and includes objective data. I hope these commentaries are helpful, or at least interesting, even if they are often provided through one person’s lens…. Read the full article.
The bounce we saw in stocks (albeit brief) has now faded and we are again testing important support at the 200-day moving average around 420 on the market cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY). The same can be said of the high-flying Nasdaq (QQQ). I have included charts of those indices below. As long as these… Read the full article.
Stocks spent last week bouncing from oversold conditions that resulted from the pullback that began in August. The market-leading Nasdaq and cap-weighted S&P 500 found support just above their 200-day moving averages and, importantly, for the S&P 500 just above the important 420 level (SPY). I have included a six-month chart below for reference. The… Read the full article.
Stocks and bonds continue to move in response to interest rates. Rising rates have resulted in falling stocks and bond prices for the past two months. The focus last week was on jobs data and whether the relative strength or weakness will move the Fed to raise rates again or end its inflation fighting campaign –… Read the full article.
The stock and bond markets continue to take it on the chin as bond yields climb higher and higher. It doesn’t help that we have a lot of domestic and international disfunction going on at the same time. So, has the bear market resumed and all these gains by big tech that have pushed indices… Read the full article.
Last week we talked about things being awfully quiet. Well, they aren’t now. Bond yields have exploded up through resistance at 4.3% on the all-important 10-Year Treasury bond. As of this writing midday Thursday, the yield is closing in on 4.5% and we are at levels not seen since 2007. Do you remember what happened… Read the full article.
As of Friday, major stock indices are churning right at their respective 50 day moving averages. This follows a plethora of economic reports last week. We got inflation data, unemployment and retail sales during the last three days of the week. All of it can be summed up as “in line” or slightly above expectations…. Read the full article.
This shortened holiday week, and the beginning of September has seen a resumption of selling in both stocks and bonds as yields moved up near the August highs. For those tracking the 10-Year Treasury, the level is 4.30%. This has resulted in the major stock indices all falling back below their 50-day moving averages and… Read the full article.
The major stock indices appear to have pulled themselves out of the “ditch” described last week. We saw all big three reclaim their respective 50-day simple moving averages. The rebound came on the back of a plethora of economic reports this week, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. We also… Read the full article.
Well, we are at the end of what has been a volatile week for both stocks and bonds. All the major stock indices failed to hold support at their respective 50-day moving average and despite a blowout earnings report from Nvidia Wednesday, selling resumed in mass as each index attempted to reclaim that important technical level…. Read the full article.
The stock market continues to pull back from its recent highs made at the end of July. We expected a pullback to the 50-day moving average (S&P 500) and that has happened. This is a typical first line of support where we would see prices begin to stabilize. That didn’t happen and we have now… Read the full article.
As we anticipated last week, the stock market is pulling back after two consecutive months of gains. I expect this will continue until the broad indices find the first level of support at their 50-day simple moving average. For those of you tracking the market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY), that represents a price of 442.35…. Read the full article.
Earnings season continues to roll on, with the majority of companies beating expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The resilience in the face of what we have seen with the rocketing interest rates is impressive to say the least. Let’s not ever forget that it is earnings that drive stock prices, and it… Read the full article.
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and raised the Fed funds rate by another 25 basis points. We are now sitting at 5.25-5.50%, which is the highest level in 22 years. Chairman Powell left additional hikes on the table during his press conference. The Fed’s actions and rhetoric continue to put pressure on… Read the full article.
I hope everyone is enjoying some summertime and got to be with family over the July 4th holiday last week. Nothing is more important. This week we got some good news on the inflation front, as both the consumer price index and producers price index came in lighter than forecast. We are also continuing to… Read the full article.
All the major stock indices continue to digest the large gains seen in May, with particular emphasis on the Nasdaq 100 and market cap weighted S&P 500. We noted two weeks ago that the leaders of this rally were overbought and ripe for a pullback and some consolidation before attempting to move higher. This remains… Read the full article.
Stocks are currently digesting the rally that we have seen over the past six weeks. This is especially true for the market cap weighted Nasdaq and S&P 500, whose performance is largely dictated by large mega cap technology stocks. As we (and others) have pointed out many times recently, those few stocks have been the… Read the full article.
During the past week we have continued to see positive expansion in market breadth. More and more sectors are participating in the rally that began a month ago and has been supported almost exclusively by a few huge tech companies. In my view, this is a very positive development and strengthens my belief that this… Read the full article.
Three good things happened last week. First, our government avoided a catastrophic debt default and passed a resolution to raise the debt ceiling. Second, we got a really solid jobs report. Hiring continued to grow unabated despite all types of threats to the economy and, importantly, wage growth slowed at the same time. This was… Read the full article.
We head into the Memorial Day weekend with no deal on the debt ceiling and another hot inflation report. The Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), came in above month-over-month and annual estimates. This has resulted in a jump in probability that the Fed will hike rates again… Read the full article.
